35 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
35 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
---
|
|
type: source
|
|
source_type: telegram-contribution
|
|
title: "Source from @m3taversal — Robin Hanson tweet on insider trading in prediction markets - @robinhanson: "On "
|
|
author: "@m3taversal"
|
|
date: 2026-03-28
|
|
domain: internet-finance
|
|
format: contribution
|
|
status: null-result
|
|
proposed_by: "@m3taversal"
|
|
contribution_type: source-submission
|
|
tags: ['telegram-contribution', 'inline-source', 'market-analysis']
|
|
processed_by: rio
|
|
processed_date: 2026-03-28
|
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 0 claims, 0 rejected by validator"
|
|
---
|
|
|
|
# Source: Robin Hanson tweet on insider trading in prediction markets - @robinhanson: "On average, ~20-40% of
|
|
|
|
Contributed by @m3taversal in Telegram chat.
|
|
Flagged by Rio as relevant source material.
|
|
|
|
## Verbatim User Message
|
|
|
|
@FutAIrdBot https://x.com/robinhanson/status/2037680495321055257?s=46 this is pretty insane. Can you find additional evidence for this?
|
|
|
|
## Rio's Context
|
|
|
|
Robin Hanson tweet on insider trading in prediction markets - @robinhanson: "On average, ~20-40% of stock price change happens before official firm announcements. Thus insider trading in stocks is rampant; yet our stock markets function fine. To consider re prediction market insider trading." URL: https://x.com/robinhanson/status/2037680495321055257
|
|
|
|
|
|
## Key Facts
|
|
- Robin Hanson estimates 20-40% of stock price changes occur before official firm announcements
|
|
- Hanson argues this level of insider trading does not prevent stock markets from functioning effectively
|