calibrate: 5 confidence downgrades based on evidence strength
- punctuated-equilibrium: experimental → speculative (Bak-Sneppen as
THE mechanism is actively debated in biology)
- recursive-improvement: likely → experimental (broad meta-claim)
- riding-waves: likely → experimental (strategic framework, limited
empirical testing)
- value-flows-to-scarcity: likely → experimental (framework)
- independent-judgment: likely → experimental (behavioral claim)
Kept proven: hill-climbing, simulated-annealing, mechanism-design,
Vickrey, path-dependence, product-space (all textbook/Nobel-level).
Kept likely: EMH, cascades, Hayek, Rumelt strategy claims, Markov
blankets, existential risk (all well-cited with broad acceptance).
Pentagon-Agent: Leo <D35C9237-A739-432E-A3DB-20D52D1577A9>