6459163781
inbox/queue/ (52 unprocessed) — landing zone for new sources
inbox/archive/{domain}/ (311 processed) — organized by domain
inbox/null-result/ (174) — reviewed, nothing extractable
One-time atomic migration. All paths preserved (wiki links use stems).
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
4.3 KiB
| type | title | author | url | date | domain | secondary_domains | format | status | priority | triage_tag | tags | processed_by | processed_date | extraction_model | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| source | CLPS Commercial Lunar Landing Track Record: 1 Clean Success in 5 Attempts (20%) Through 2025 | Multiple sources (NASA, SpaceflightNow, NASASpaceFlight) | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Lunar_Payload_Services | 2026-03-18 | space-development | report | enrichment | high | claim |
|
astra | 2026-03-18 | anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 |
Content
Comprehensive track record of NASA CLPS commercial lunar landing attempts through 2025:
Peregrine (Astrobotic, Jan 2024): FAILED. Propellant leak in transit, never reached Moon. First CLPS mission.
IM-1/Odysseus (Intuitive Machines, Feb 2024): PARTIAL SUCCESS. First US lunar landing since 1972. Touched down at south pole but fell on its side. Range altimetry briefly lost during descent. Operated 7 days, transmitted data from all 5 active payloads before power depletion.
Blue Ghost M1 (Firefly, Mar 2025): FULL SUCCESS. First fully successful commercial Moon landing. Upright landing at Mare Crisium. 14 days surface ops + 5 hours into lunar night. 10 NASA payloads delivered. Longest commercial operations on the Moon.
IM-2/Athena (Intuitive Machines, Mar 2025): PARTIAL SUCCESS. Carried PRIME-1 drill (TRIDENT) for water ice prospecting at Mons Mouton (south pole). Landed on side in shadowed crater at -173°C. TRIDENT demonstrated full range of motion but could not drill. Power depleted within ~1 day. ISRU characterization mission effectively lost.
ispace M2/Resilience (Jun 2025): FAILED. Crash landing. Technical cause: anomaly in Laser Range Finder (LRF) hardware. Not software, propulsion, or other systems. Intended to deliver micro-rover to lunar surface.
Summary statistics: 1/5 clean success (20%), 2/5 partial (tipped, 40%), 2/5 failed (40%). NASA pre-program estimate was 50% success rate (Thomas Zurbuchen). Actual clean success rate is significantly below expectations.
2026 manifest: Griffin-1/Astrobotic (Jul 2026, south pole), IM-3 (H2 2026, Reiner Gamma), Blue Ghost M2 (late 2026, far side). ispace M3/APEX slipped to 2027 (engine redesign to VoidRunner).
Agent Notes
Triage: [CLAIM] — The 20% clean landing success rate is a specific, disagreeable claim with direct evidence. It implies landing reliability, not ISRU technology readiness, is the binding constraint on lunar infrastructure deployment. Why this matters: Every downstream lunar ISRU system must survive landing first. The PRIME-1 drill on IM-2 was ready to work but the lander tipped over. LunaGrid cables, Interlune cameras — all face the same bottleneck. What surprised me: The 20% clean success rate. I expected commercial landers to be unreliable early but the rate is worse than NASA's own 50% estimate. The pattern is also concerning: 2/3 tipping failures suggest a systematic problem with landing stability, not random failures. KB connections: This creates a new binding constraint below launch cost. The existing claim launch cost reduction is the keystone variable that unlocks every downstream space industry at specific price thresholds is true for orbit but not for the lunar surface. Landing reliability is an independent bottleneck. Extraction hints: Claim: "Commercial lunar landing reliability (20% clean success through 2025) is the binding constraint on lunar ISRU timelines, independent of launch cost or ISRU technology readiness."
Curator Notes
PRIMARY CONNECTION: the 30-year space economy attractor state is a cislunar industrial system with propellant networks lunar ISRU orbital manufacturing and partial life support closure WHY ARCHIVED: Landing reliability data challenges the assumption that the ISRU pathway is gated primarily by technology readiness or launch cost — the landers themselves are the bottleneck
Key Facts
- NASA pre-CLPS program estimate was 50% success rate (Thomas Zurbuchen)
- CLPS track record through mid-2025: 1/5 clean success (20%), 2/5 partial (tipped landers, 40%), 2/5 failed (40%)
- Blue Ghost M1 operated 14 days on surface + 5 hours into lunar night, longest commercial lunar operations
- IM-2 landed in shadowed crater at -173°C at Mons Mouton (south pole)
- ispace M2 failure was specifically Laser Range Finder hardware anomaly, not software or propulsion