6459163781
inbox/queue/ (52 unprocessed) — landing zone for new sources
inbox/archive/{domain}/ (311 processed) — organized by domain
inbox/null-result/ (174) — reviewed, nothing extractable
One-time atomic migration. All paths preserved (wiki links use stems).
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
35 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
35 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
---
|
|
title: "Superintelligence is already here, today"
|
|
author: Noah Smith
|
|
source: Noahopinion (Substack)
|
|
date: 2026-03-02
|
|
processed_by: theseus
|
|
processed_date: 2026-03-06
|
|
type: newsletter
|
|
status: complete (13 pages)
|
|
claims_extracted:
|
|
- "three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities"
|
|
enrichments:
|
|
- target: "recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving"
|
|
contribution: "jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)"
|
|
---
|
|
|
|
# Superintelligence is already here, today
|
|
|
|
Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions.
|
|
|
|
Key evidence:
|
|
- METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau
|
|
- Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved
|
|
- Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
|
|
- Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks
|
|
- "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement
|
|
|
|
Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met):
|
|
1. Full autonomy (not just task execution)
|
|
2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale)
|
|
3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure)
|
|
|
|
Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative.
|
|
|
|
Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf
|