cb1918a43b
Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions. Reviewed by Vida (health) and Theseus (ai-alignment). Both approved.
43 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
43 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
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description: Exiting Nvidia and Broadcom to go all-in on Bloom Energy CoreWeave and Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting shows the thesis sharpening from AI will be huge to the binding constraint is electricity not algorithms
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type: analysis
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domain: livingip
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created: 2026-03-05
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confidence: likely
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source: "SEC 13F filings Q4 2025, Fortune Oct 2025"
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---
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# Aschenbrenners Q4 2025 pivot from chips to power infrastructure demonstrates real-time attractor state refinement as the bottleneck shifted from compute to electricity
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The Situational Awareness LP portfolio underwent a dramatic rotation in Q4 2025. The fund exited Nvidia and Broadcom — the consensus AI plays — and concentrated into physical infrastructure: Bloom Energy (largest holding, +$911M added), CoreWeave call options (+$651M, 672% increase), Core Scientific (9.4% stake), and a cluster of Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting (IREN, Cipher Mining, Riot, Hut 8, Bitdeer).
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This is [[teleological investing answers three questions in sequence -- where must the industry go and where in the stack will value concentrate and who will control that position]] in action. Aschenbrenner answered all three questions and then refined his answer as evidence updated the posterior:
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1. **Where must it go?** AI infrastructure buildout is near-inevitable (unchanged)
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2. **Where will value concentrate?** Initially: chips. Updated: the power/compute hosting layer
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3. **Who controls the position?** Whoever secures power purchase agreements and physical data center capacity
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The pivot illustrates two mechanisms simultaneously:
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Since [[value in industry transitions accrues to bottleneck positions in the emerging architecture not to pioneers or to the largest incumbents]], the bottleneck in AI infrastructure shifted. Nvidia dominated the first phase (training chips). But as training clusters scaled from 100MW to 1GW+, the binding constraint moved downstream to electricity supply and physical hosting. Chips became a solved problem — Nvidia would keep making them. But the power to run them became scarce.
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Since [[teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning applied to technology streams because attractor state analysis provides the prior and market evidence updates the posterior]], this is exactly the kind of posterior update the framework demands. The prior (AI infrastructure will boom) stayed constant. The posterior (which specific bottleneck captures value) updated as evidence accumulated that power infrastructure was the binding constraint.
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The contrarian element is sharp. While the market was still piling into chip stocks, Aschenbrenner shorted Nvidia and Broadcom via puts while going long on power infrastructure — positions that are structurally contrarian in the way [[teleological investing is structurally contrarian because most market participants are local optimizers whose short time horizons systematically undervalue long-horizon convergence plays]] describes. Most AI investors are hill-climbing on the obvious thesis (chips). The teleological investor asks where the architecture must converge.
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His Intel call options are the most contrarian position of all — a bet that Intel's foundry ambitions may eventually matter more than their current chip struggles. This is the kind of position that looks insane to hill-climbers and logical to attractor-state analysts.
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Whether this pivot proves correct is an open question. It could be brilliant bottleneck identification or speculative overconcentration. Since [[the Cathie Wood failure mode shows that transparent thesis plus concentrated bets plus early outperformance is structurally identical whether the outcome is spectacular success or catastrophic failure]], concentrated pivots look identical in their early stages whether they're right or wrong.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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- [[teleological investing answers three questions in sequence -- where must the industry go and where in the stack will value concentrate and who will control that position]] -- the framework this pivot validates in real-time
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- [[value in industry transitions accrues to bottleneck positions in the emerging architecture not to pioneers or to the largest incumbents]] -- the bottleneck shifted from chips to power
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- [[teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning applied to technology streams because attractor state analysis provides the prior and market evidence updates the posterior]] -- the pivot IS a Bayesian update
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- [[Situational Awareness LP converted a 165-page thesis into a 5.5 billion dollar fund in 18 months by publishing differentiated analysis before raising capital]] -- the fund making this pivot
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- [[the Cathie Wood failure mode shows that transparent thesis plus concentrated bets plus early outperformance is structurally identical whether the outcome is spectacular success or catastrophic failure]] -- the concentrated pivot carries ARK-style risk
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Topics:
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- [[attractor dynamics]]
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- [[teleological-economics overview]]
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