5ea472ee51
- Source: inbox/queue/2026-05-04-osi-crash-clock-2-5-days-leo-stabilization-scenarios.md - Domain: space-development - Claims: 2, Entities: 1 - Enrichments: 4 - Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5) Pentagon-Agent: Astra <PIPELINE>
2.2 KiB
Outer Space Institute
Type: Research organization
Location: University of British Columbia (UBC), Canada
Focus: Orbital debris risk quantification and space governance
Key Personnel: Aaron Boley (primary researcher), Darren McKnight (LeoLabs, collaborator)
Overview
The Outer Space Institute is a research organization based at the University of British Columbia that focuses on orbital debris risk quantification and space governance. The institute is best known for developing the CRASH Clock, a real-time metric that measures LEO collision vulnerability.
CRASH Clock
The CRASH Clock (Collision Risk Assessment for Space Hazards) measures the expected time until a potential collision in LEO between tracked artificial objects if all maneuvers were to stop. The metric is designed to communicate orbital risk in human-comprehensible terms (days until collision) rather than abstract satellite count statistics.
Key characteristics:
- Measures vulnerability based on density of all tracked objects (active satellites, defunct payloads, rocket bodies, debris >10 cm) in LEO
- NOT a probability of immediate collision—it is the expected time-to-collision IF maneuvering stopped
- Real-time metric, not a projection model
Timeline
- 2018 — CRASH Clock established with initial reading of 121 days
- June 25, 2025 — CRASH Clock reading: 5.5 days
- January 26, 2026 — CRASH Clock reading: 3.8 days
- February 2026 — CRASH Clock formally introduced to the United Nations, representing institutional recognition of the metric by the international governance body for space
- March 20, 2026 — CRASH Clock reading: 3.0 days
- May 4, 2026 — CRASH Clock reading: 2.5 days (compression rate: approximately 0.5 days/month in 2026)
Significance
The CRASH Clock provides quantitative evidence for the rate at which LEO collision risk is increasing. Its compression trajectory from 121 days (2018) to 2.5 days (May 2026) demonstrates that orbital governance urgency is accelerating rather than stabilizing. The metric's introduction to the UN in February 2026 represents formal multilateral recognition of orbital risk quantification methodologies.