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title author source date processed_by processed_date type status claims_extracted enrichments
Superintelligence is already here, today Noah Smith Noahopinion (Substack) 2026-03-02 theseus 2026-03-06 newsletter complete (13 pages)
three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities
target contribution
recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)

Superintelligence is already here, today

Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions.

Key evidence:

  • METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau
  • Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved
  • Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
  • Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks
  • "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement

Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met):

  1. Full autonomy (not just task execution)
  2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale)
  3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure)

Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative.

Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf