70 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
70 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: entity
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entity_type: company
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name: "Polymarket"
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domain: internet-finance
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handles: ["@Polymarket"]
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website: https://polymarket.com
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status: active
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tracked_by: rio
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created: 2026-03-11
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last_updated: 2026-03-11
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founded: 2020-06-01
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founders: ["[[shayne-coplan]]"]
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category: "Prediction market platform (Polygon/Ethereum L2)"
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stage: growth
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funding: "ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B"
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key_metrics:
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monthly_volume_30d: "$8.7B (March 2026)"
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daily_volume_24h: "$390M (March 2026)"
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election_accuracy: "94%+ one month before resolution; 98% on winners"
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competitors: ["[[kalshi]]", "[[augur]]"]
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built_on: ["Polygon"]
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tags: ["prediction-markets", "decision-markets", "information-aggregation"]
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---
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# Polymarket
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## Overview
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Crypto-native prediction market platform on Polygon. Users trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events (politics, economics, sports, crypto). Built on USDC. Vindicated by 2024 US presidential election — called Trump victory when polls showed a toss-up. Now the world's largest prediction market by volume.
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## Current State
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- **Volume**: $390M 24h, $2.6B 7-day, $8.7B 30-day (March 2026)
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- **Accuracy**: 94%+ one month before outcome resolution; 98% on calling winners
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- **US access**: Returned to US users (invite-only, restricted markets) after CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation (November 2025). Operating as intermediated contract market with full reporting/surveillance.
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- **Valuation**: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B, making founder Shayne Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire.
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- **Market creation**: Permissionless — anyone can create markets (differentiator vs Kalshi's centrally listed model)
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## Timeline
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- **2020-06** — Founded by Shayne Coplan (age 22, NYU dropout). Pivoted from earlier DeFi project Union Market.
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- **2022-01** — CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4M for operating unregistered binary options market; ordered to cease and desist. Blocked US users.
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- **2024-11** — 2024 US presidential election: $3.7B total volume. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump victory; polls showed toss-up. Major vindication moment for prediction markets.
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- **2025-10** — Monthly volume exceeded $3B
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- **2025-11** — CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation as regulated contract market
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- **2025-12** — Relaunched for US users (invite-only, restricted markets)
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- **2026-03** — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B (week of March 2-8, 2026)
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## Competitive Position
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- **#1 by volume** — leads Kalshi on 30-day volume ($8.7B vs $6.8B)
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- **Crypto-native**: USDC on Polygon, non-custodial, permissionless market creation
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- **vs Kalshi**: Kalshi is regulation-first (USD-denominated, KYC, traditional brokerage integration). Polymarket is crypto-first. Both grew massively post-2024 election — combined 2025 volume ~$30B.
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- **Not governance**: Polymarket aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations. Different use case from MetaDAO's futarchy. Same mechanism class (conditional markets), different application.
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## Investment Thesis
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Polymarket proved prediction markets work at scale. The 2024 election vindication created a permanent legitimacy shift — prediction markets are now the reference standard for forecasting, not polls. Growth trajectory accelerating. Key risk: regulatory capture (CFTC constraints on market types), competition from Kalshi on institutional/mainstream side.
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**Thesis status:** ACTIVE
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## Relationship to KB
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- [[Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election]] — core vindication claim
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- [[speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds]] — mechanism theory Polymarket demonstrates
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- [[decision markets fail in three systematic categories where legitimacy thin information or herding dynamics make voting or deliberation structurally superior]] — boundary conditions apply to Polymarket too (thin-information markets showed media-tracking behavior during early COVID)
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---
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Relevant Entities:
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- [[kalshi]] — primary competitor (regulated)
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- [[metadao]] — same mechanism class, different application (governance vs prediction)
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Topics:
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- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
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