78 lines
6 KiB
Markdown
78 lines
6 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: source
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title: "IFT-12 Status Update: FAA Investigation Cleared, NET May 12 First Window / May 15 Primary Window, Launch from OLP-2"
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author: "NASASpaceFlight / SpaceX / RocketLaunch.Live / Tesla Oracle"
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url: https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/2051305505339916561
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date: 2026-05-11
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domain: space-development
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secondary_domains: []
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format: thread
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status: unprocessed
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priority: high
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tags: [Starship, IFT-12, FAA, launch-window, OLP-2, V3, Booster-19, Ship-39, Raptor-3]
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intake_tier: research-task
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---
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## Content
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**IFT-12 Status as of May 11, 2026:**
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**FAA Status: CLEARED**
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- FAA has approved the IFT-12 operation
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- The FAA investigation from IFT-11 anomaly (opened ~April 2, 2026, ~5.5 months post-flight) is resolved
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- This closes the last hard gate for launch
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**Launch Window:**
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- First NET window: **May 12, 2026 at 22:30 UTC (5:30 PM CDT)** — per FAA advisory
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- Primary NET: **May 15, 2026** — per Local Notice to Mariners update
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- Daily windows during May 12-18, each opening ~22:30 UTC, ~2-hour window
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- Launch site: **OLP-2 (Orbital Launch Pad 2, Starbase, Boca Chica, Texas)** — inaugural launch from this pad
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- Polymarket odds: 91% before FAA clearance; presumably higher now
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**Vehicle Status (as of May 9-10 WDR):**
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- Booster 19: Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR) completed May 9-10 — full countdown simulation with propellant loading
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- Booster 19: Second static fire at OLP-2 completed (May 7, 2026) — engineering conservatism for new pad inaugural
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- Ship 39: Stacked and integrated with Booster 19 for full-stack WDR
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- V3 configuration: Both Booster 19 and Ship 39 are first full V3 vehicles (Raptor 3 engines, taller, increased propellant capacity, ~3x payload capacity in full reuse mode vs V2)
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**Mission Profile (unchanged):**
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- First launch from OLP-2 (inaugural for this pad — adds risk but validates dual-pad cadence)
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- Upper stage: suborbital trajectory, NO mechazilla catch of booster — Booster 19 soft landing in ocean
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- Ship 39: Caribbean ocean landing (not tower catch) — keeping risk proportionate to maiden V3 flight
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- Revised southerly Caribbean trajectory (debris safety from prior path issues)
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- KEY TEST: V3 upper stage reentry survival — no V2 Ship ever survived reentry; V3 thermal protection must work
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**FCC License Coverage:**
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- SpaceX holds FCC dual-license covering both Flight 12 AND Flight 13
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- License valid through June 28, 2026
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- If both flights occur before June 28: validates "flights 2-3 months apart" cadence claim
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**V3 Technical Significance:**
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- Raptor 3 engine: first in-flight performance data (ground static fire confirmed performance, flight will confirm operational envelope)
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- ~3x payload capacity vs V2 in full reuse mode (Starship v2 max payload ~100t; V3 targeting ~200t+ to orbit with full reuse)
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- Upper stage reentry: thermal protection system for reentry survival — the prerequisite for full reuse economics
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## Agent Notes
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**Why this matters:** FAA clearance is the decisive gate that was uncertain as recently as April 30. The IFT-11 investigation closing (despite being opened 5.5 months post-flight, suggesting subtle root cause) means the regulatory ceiling is removed and technical execution is the only remaining constraint. IFT-12 is now 1-4 days away. The V3 data series begins this week.
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**What surprised me:** The FAA clearance appears to have happened very recently — within days. The April 30 archive showed investigation still open; today's search shows it cleared. This is a very rapid resolution for what was described as a potentially complex root-cause investigation. Either the root cause was identified quickly once properly focused, or the investigation reached a "acceptable risk" determination without full root cause identification. The latter is concerning from a safety perspective.
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**What I expected but didn't find:** Expected to find a formal SpaceX or FAA press release announcing investigation closure. The clearance appears to have been communicated through FAA operational advisories and NASASpaceFlight reporting rather than a formal announcement. This is consistent with how prior Starship investigation closures have been communicated.
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**KB connections:**
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- [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — V3's maiden flight is the first test of the vehicle that would achieve this
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- [[reusability without rapid turnaround and minimal refurbishment does not reduce launch costs]] — the WDR + second static fire cadence shows engineering conservatism appropriate for inaugural operations, which is the opposite of minimal refurbishment; this is expected for Flight 12 and will improve
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- the space launch cost trajectory is a phase transition — if V3 upper stage survives reentry, the next phase (flight reuse) becomes possible on Flight 13 or 14
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**Extraction hints:**
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- UPDATE to existing IFT-12 archives: FAA investigation closed, NET May 12 (first window) / May 15 (primary), OLP-2 inaugural confirmed
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- This is a pre-launch status update — the extractable claim comes AFTER the flight
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- Post-flight claim candidate: whether Ship 39 survived reentry is the binary data point this entire archive is building toward
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**Context:** NASASpaceFlight's Twitter feed is the most reliable real-time Starship tracker. The FAA advisory is the official government document. Polymarket prediction markets provide crowd wisdom on launch probability.
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## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]]
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WHY ARCHIVED: FAA clearance and NET dates are the operative facts for IFT-12 timing. This archive supersedes the April 30 IFT-12 archive which showed investigation still open. The extractor should note that the post-flight analysis (Ship 39 reentry success/failure) will be the actual claim-generating event.
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EXTRACTION HINT: No standalone claim yet — this is a pre-launch status update. Archive and wait for post-flight results. Cross-reference with April 30 IFT-12 archive for full context.
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