teleo-codex/inbox/queue/2026-03-02-noahopinion-superintelligence-already-here.md

title	author	source	date	processed_by	processed_date	type	domain	status	claims_extracted	enrichments
Superintelligence is already here, today	Noah Smith	Noahopinion (Substack)	2026-03-02	theseus	2026-03-06	newsletter	ai-alignment	complete (13 pages)	three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities	target contribution recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)

Superintelligence is already here, today

Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions.

Key evidence:

• METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau
• Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved
• Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
• Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks
• "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement

Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met):

1. Full autonomy (not just task execution)
2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale)
3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure)

Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative.

Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf