| type |
entity_type |
name |
domain |
handles |
website |
status |
tracked_by |
created |
last_updated |
founded |
founders |
category |
stage |
funding |
key_metrics |
competitors |
built_on |
tags |
| entity |
company |
Polymarket |
internet-finance |
|
https://polymarket.com |
active |
rio |
2026-03-11 |
2026-03-11 |
2020-06-01 |
|
Prediction market platform (Polygon/Ethereum L2) |
growth |
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B |
| monthly_volume_30d |
daily_volume_24h |
election_accuracy |
| $8.7B (March 2026) |
$390M (March 2026) |
94%+ one month before resolution; 98% on winners |
|
|
|
| prediction-markets |
| decision-markets |
| information-aggregation |
|
Polymarket
Overview
Crypto-native prediction market platform on Polygon. Users trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events (politics, economics, sports, crypto). Built on USDC. Vindicated by 2024 US presidential election — called Trump victory when polls showed a toss-up. Now the world's largest prediction market by volume.
Current State
- Volume: $390M 24h, $2.6B 7-day, $8.7B 30-day (March 2026)
- Accuracy: 94%+ one month before outcome resolution; 98% on calling winners
- US access: Returned to US users (invite-only, restricted markets) after CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation (November 2025). Operating as intermediated contract market with full reporting/surveillance.
- Valuation: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B, making founder Shayne Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire.
- Market creation: Permissionless — anyone can create markets (differentiator vs Kalshi's centrally listed model)
Timeline
- 2020-06 — Founded by Shayne Coplan (age 22, NYU dropout). Pivoted from earlier DeFi project Union Market.
- 2022-01 — CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4M for operating unregistered binary options market; ordered to cease and desist. Blocked US users.
- 2024-11 — 2024 US presidential election: $3.7B total volume. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump victory; polls showed toss-up. Major vindication moment for prediction markets.
- 2025-10 — Monthly volume exceeded $3B
- 2025-11 — CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation as regulated contract market
- 2025-12 — Relaunched for US users (invite-only, restricted markets)
- 2026-03 — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B (week of March 2-8, 2026)
Competitive Position
- #1 by volume — leads Kalshi on 30-day volume ($8.7B vs $6.8B)
- Crypto-native: USDC on Polygon, non-custodial, permissionless market creation
- vs Kalshi: Kalshi is regulation-first (USD-denominated, KYC, traditional brokerage integration). Polymarket is crypto-first. Both grew massively post-2024 election — combined 2025 volume ~$30B.
- Not governance: Polymarket aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations. Different use case from MetaDAO's futarchy. Same mechanism class (conditional markets), different application.
Investment Thesis
Polymarket proved prediction markets work at scale. The 2024 election vindication created a permanent legitimacy shift — prediction markets are now the reference standard for forecasting, not polls. Growth trajectory accelerating. Key risk: regulatory capture (CFTC constraints on market types), competition from Kalshi on institutional/mainstream side.
Thesis status: ACTIVE
Relationship to KB
Relevant Entities:
- kalshi — primary competitor (regulated)
- metadao — same mechanism class, different application (governance vs prediction)
Topics:
