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| type | domain | secondary_domains | description | staked_by | stake | created | horizon | falsified_by | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conviction | ai-alignment |
|
Not a prediction but an observation in progress — AI is already writing and verifying code, the remaining question is scope and timeline not possibility. | Cory | high | 2026-03-07 | 2028 | AI code generation plateaus at toy problems and fails to handle production-scale systems by 2028 |
AI-automated software development is 100 percent certain and will radically change how software is built
Cory's conviction, staked with high confidence on 2026-03-07.
The evidence is already visible: Claude solved a 30-year open mathematical problem (Knuth 2026). AI agents autonomously explored solution spaces with zero human intervention (Aquino-Michaels 2026). AI-generated proofs are formally verified by machine (Morrison 2026). The trajectory from here to automated software development is not speculative — it's interpolation.
The implication: when building capacity is commoditized, the scarce complement becomes knowing what to build. Structured knowledge — machine-readable specifications of what matters, why, and how to evaluate results — becomes the critical input to autonomous systems.
Relevant Notes:
- as AI-automated software development becomes certain the bottleneck shifts from building capacity to knowing what to build making structured knowledge graphs the critical input to autonomous systems — the claim this conviction anchors
- structured exploration protocols reduce human intervention by 6x because the Residue prompt enabled 5 unguided AI explorations to solve what required 31 human-coached explorations — evidence of AI autonomy in complex problem-solving
Topics:
- domains/ai-alignment/_map