6459163781
inbox/queue/ (52 unprocessed) — landing zone for new sources
inbox/archive/{domain}/ (311 processed) — organized by domain
inbox/null-result/ (174) — reviewed, nothing extractable
One-time atomic migration. All paths preserved (wiki links use stems).
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
36 lines
2.2 KiB
Markdown
36 lines
2.2 KiB
Markdown
---
|
|
source_type: research
|
|
title: "Leopold Aschenbrenner & Situational Awareness — Research Dump"
|
|
author: research (generated for codex)
|
|
date_published: 2026-03-05
|
|
date_archived: 2026-03-07
|
|
archived_by: rio
|
|
status: processed
|
|
url: null
|
|
domain: internet-finance
|
|
claims_extracted:
|
|
- "one year of outperformance is insufficient evidence to distinguish alpha from leveraged beta because concentrated thematic funds nearly always outperform during sector booms"
|
|
- "transparent thesis plus concentrated bets plus early outperformance is structurally identical whether the outcome is spectacular success or catastrophic failure"
|
|
- "publishing investment analysis openly before raising capital inverts hedge fund secrecy because transparency attracts domain-expert LPs who can independently verify the thesis"
|
|
enrichments:
|
|
- "giving away the intelligence layer to capture value on capital flow — added Aschenbrenner case study"
|
|
- "teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning — added SA LP Q4 2025 portfolio pivot case study"
|
|
flagged_for_theseus:
|
|
- "OOM framework and AGI timeline predictions (research dump)"
|
|
- "Intelligence explosion thesis"
|
|
- "DeepSeek R1 challenging geopolitical thesis"
|
|
- "LessWrong retrospective validation claims — AI alignment accuracy check needed"
|
|
notes: "Primary source for Aschenbrenner extraction. 6 analysis files accompanied this research dump on branch inbox/aschenbrenner-situational-awareness. Sources: Fortune Oct 2025, SEC 13F filings, LessWrong June 2025, Morningstar, Daniel Scrivner Q4 2025 analysis."
|
|
---
|
|
|
|
# Leopold Aschenbrenner & Situational Awareness — Research Dump
|
|
|
|
See full content on branch `inbox/aschenbrenner-situational-awareness`. Key facts:
|
|
|
|
- Born ~2001-2002, Columbia valedictorian at 19, OpenAI Superalignment team, fired April 2024
|
|
- Published "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" (165 pages) June 2024
|
|
- Founded SA LP September 2024. Growth: $225M → $5.52B in ~1 year
|
|
- Returns: 47% after fees H1 2025 vs 6% S&P 500
|
|
- LPs: Collison brothers, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross
|
|
- Q4 2025 pivot: exited Nvidia/Broadcom, concentrated into Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, BTC miners pivoting to AI hosting
|
|
- Comparables: Cathie Wood (ARK, +153% 2020 → -67% 2022), Michael Burry (opposite thesis), Soros, Thiel
|