Theseus
2913e7d58a
Co-authored-by: Theseus <theseus@agents.livingip.xyz> Co-committed-by: Theseus <theseus@agents.livingip.xyz>
10 KiB
| type | entity_type | name | domain | status | parent_entity | platform | proposer | proposal_url | proposal_date | resolution_date | category | summary | key_metrics | tags | tracked_by | created | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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| decision | decision_market | MetaDAO: Engage in $700,000 OTC Trade with Theia? | internet-finance | failed | metadao | metadao | Proph3t (on behalf of Theia) | https://v1.metadao.fi/metadao/trade/BnfFejPpykmTtM5TyNEySgRCctRizmrZe9Bbe8V1UTon | 2025-01-03 | 2025-01-06 | treasury | Proposal 9 — Theia's first OTC attempt. 609 META at $1,149/token ($700K) at $24M FDV with 6-month lock. 12.7% discount to spot. Failed despite detailed strategic partnership pitch. |
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rio | 2026-03-24 |
MetaDAO: Engage in $700,000 OTC Trade with Theia?
Summary & Connections
Proposal 9 — Theia's first OTC attempt, failed. 609 META at $1,149.425/token ($700K total) at $24M FDV. 12.7% discount to spot. 6-month Streamflow lock. Most detailed institutional pitch in MetaDAO history — 5 dimensions of value-add with named portfolio company references.
Outcome: Failed (2025-01-06). Theia came back 3 weeks later with metadao-otc-trade-theia-2 at $500K/370 META/$1,350/token — smaller commitment but at a premium to spot. That one passed.
Connections:
- The Theia OTC sequence: rejected at discount (this, $700K, -12.7%) → accepted at premium (metadao-otc-trade-theia-2, $500K, +14%) → accepted at premium (metadao-otc-trade-theia-3, $630K, +38%). The market distinguishes between extractive and aligned capital.
- Theia's description of themselves — "onchain liquid token fund that replicates traditional private investment strategies" with 2-4 year hold periods — is core evidence for publishing investment analysis openly before raising capital inverts hedge fund secrecy because transparency attracts domain-expert LPs who can independently verify the thesis
- The proposal's failure despite Theia offering genuine strategic value (portfolio synergies, token structuring, roadshows, market framing, policy) demonstrates futarchy's independence from persuasion — the mechanism priced the deal as net-negative regardless of the pitch quality
Full Proposal Text
Overview
- Theia wishes to acquire 609 META tokens (METADDFL6wWMWEoKTFJwcThTbUmtarRJZjRpzUvkxhr) at a USD price of $1,149.425 per token from the MetaDAO Treasury (6awyHMshBGVjJ3ozdSJdyyDE1CTAXUwrpNMaRGMsb4sf) in exchange for $700,000 USDC (EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v).
- Theia will allocate resources to helping MetaDAO succeed and believes it can be helpful across multiple core areas, including governance, research, token structuring/liquidity, US policy, and business development. We have provided numerous portfolio company references to the MetaDAO team that can attest to our involvement and value add.
- Theia's $700K investment could be spent to hire an additional senior engineer, seed liquidity on new markets, and expand business development operations to onboard more DAOs to MetaDAO.
- MetaDAO will transfer the entire portion of META tokens through a 6-month lock Streamflow program.
Introduction to Theia
Theia is an onchain liquid token fund manager that invests in companies building the Internet Financial System. Theia replicates traditional private investment strategies by taking large positions in small-cap tokens within under-explored market parts and working closely with management teams to add value. Theia typically buys liquid tokens through structured and proprietary deals and holds investments through a two to four-year investment thesis.
Our team operates on the premise that the Internet Financial System will take share from the existing global financial system by providing innovative and increasingly efficient financial primitives that expand the design space for financial products and accelerate financialization through the Internet. The global financial system represents the largest addressable market in the world and we believe permissionless blockchain technology will expand the TAM.
Theia is a differentiated partner due to the time and expertise we commit to our portfolio companies as well as our intense focus on core infrastructure and financial applications in EVM and SVM. Our fund strategy is designed to drive value for our portfolio companies; we cap our fund size, maintain a concentrated book of few investments, and seek to hold investments for many years. We work to ensure that each portfolio company has time and ample resources to realize our underwriting model forecast. This allows us to hold for the long term and ignore price fluctuations that are unrelated to business-specific catalysts.
Proposal
We appreciate the time and effort both Proph3t and Kollan have spent with our team as we have conducted our diligence on MetaDAO. Better governance is a pressing need across the Internet Financial System and we are impressed by MetaDAO's commitment to the vision of Futarchy. It isn't often you find a team that combines missionary zeal with real talent as builders.
We are pleased to submit an offer to acquire META tokens on behalf of Theia and serve as a strategic partner to MetaDAO. While this letter outlines specific terms for a token agreement, we believe that a long-term partnership between Theia and MetaDAO is the most important component of our proposal.
On behalf of Theia Blockchain Partners Master Fund LP ("Theia"), we submit a bid to acquire 609 META tokens at a USD price of $1,149.425 per token, an implied valuation of $24M FDV. This equates to $700,000 of locked tokens at a 12.7% discount to spot price as of 1/3/25 at a 6-month lock.
We believe this valuation is appropriate for a long-term partnership deal because —
- The valuation is on the upper end of seed-range ($10M to $25M) - we believe MetaDAO deserves to be at the top of this range as it has a working product and users.
- The valuation represents a large (>60%) markup to the latest large venture round to reflect significant progress.
- We expect MetaDAO to continue to issue tokens as it scales operations and are factoring in 10-20% dilution per year. Given this assumption, a $24M FDV today represents a $35M valuation on a 3-year go-forward basis.
Importantly, our $700,000 investment would provide valuable capital to MetaDAO. Theia's $700K investment could be spent to hire an additional senior engineer, seed liquidity on new markets, and expand business development operations to onboard more DAOs to MetaDAO.
Theia Value Add
MetaDAO is one of the most exciting ideas in the Internet Financial System and global governance as a whole, and we are eager to support the company through its next phase of growth. Our proposed terms would result in a ~$102K discount relative to a deal at liquid market price, or ~40bps of dilution relative to market price. We will work hard to increase the probability of success for MetaDAO by much more than that across the following five dimensions:
- Portfolio Synergies & Strategy: Given our position in the market, we work closely with teams to implement best practices we observe from across the market. We constantly meet with companies, funds, exchanges, and infrastructure providers. For example, we worked closely with the BananaGun, Unibot, and Turtle Club teams to launch on Solana, introducing them to leading ecosystem players. We worked with Derive to design structured product vaults to attract retail users to a complex product. We worked with Kamino to introduce modular lending to their core monolithic lending business.
- Token Structuring: We actively work on token structuring across our entire portfolio. This work ranges from strategic consultation on incremental improvements to large-scale token redesigns. In the case of Derive (fka Lyra), we helped the team redesign their token to match their new business model. We worked with Houdini Swap (LOCK) on a full-scale token rebrand and tokenomics redesign. We are beginning to work with Vertex on a similar token redesign and are actively working with the Turtle Club team.
- Roadshows: We meet regularly with most major US and European liquid funds. We openly share our best ideas but pay close attention to the stylistic preferences of different funds. When mutually beneficial, we facilitate introductions and help prepare. We provide detailed feedback on presentations, data rooms, and investor pitches.
- Market Framing: We are an active research firm and believe that the correct market framing can help a company raise capital, hire talent, win partnerships, and focus resources on the most impactful outcomes. We write consistently about our portfolio companies and the key themes that affect them.
- Policy: We expect US policy to remain an important input for companies, especially as they seek to expand beyond what exists onchain today. We have built strong relationships with political consultants, congressional staffers, regulatory agencies, and law firms.
Raw Data
- Proposal account:
BnfFejPpykmTtM5TyNEySgRCctRizmrZe9Bbe8V1UTon - Proposal number: 9
- DAO account:
CNMZgxYsQpygk8CLN9Su1igwXX2kHtcawaNAGuBPv3G9 - Proposer:
proPaC9tVZEsmgDtNhx15e7nSpoojtPD3H9h4GqSqB2 - Autocrat version: 0.3
- Completed: 2025-01-06
Relationship to KB
- metadao — parent entity
- metadao-otc-trade-theia-2 — second attempt (passed, $500K at +14% premium)
- metadao-otc-trade-theia-3 — third attempt (passed, $630K at +38% premium)
- theia-research — institutional participant
- publishing investment analysis openly before raising capital inverts hedge fund secrecy because transparency attracts domain-expert LPs who can independently verify the thesis — Theia's open research model
- futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements — complex OTC structures