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# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro

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## Power Laws in Culture

Why Hits Will Persist in an Infinite Content World

DOUG SHAPIRO
MAR 16, 2023

[Note that this essay was originally published on Medium]

<!-- Image Description: A digital illustration depicts a person standing and looking up at several arrows of different colors (blue, orange, red) that are curving upwards. The arrows start low and curve upwards, with some reaching higher than others. The person is dressed in a blue suit and appears to be contemplating the upward trajectory of the arrows. The background is a plain white. The illustration is meant to represent growth, trends, or the power law concept. -->

Source: Hurca!/stock.adobe.com

*   Almost 20 years ago, Chris Anderson wrote The Long Tail, which accurately predicted that the Internet would fragment attention and consumption would shift into the "tail.” But Top Gun Maverick generated over $700 million at the domestic box office last year, Bad Bunny had 18.5 billion streams on Spotify last year and 142 million households reportedly watched Squid Game Season 1 in its first 28 days. Why are there still hits in a fragmenting world?

*   I recently posted an essay called Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV. It made the case that over the next decade video will follow the path of text, photography and music and the quality distinction between “professionally-produced" content and "independent/creator/user-generated" content will increasingly blur. This will result in practically infinite quality video content. Will there still be hits then, or only personalized niches?

*   Have you ever wondered why so many blockbuster movies are about superheroes? Is Hollywood lazy or are consumers' tastes becoming dumber and more homogenized? Or neither?

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*   Why does something go viral, anyway?

*   Do content recommendations push you to the most popular shows, movies and songs or are they tailored just for you? Or do they have a different agenda?

*   Will web3 really be the savior of small creators?

*   When Billie Eilish, Lil Nas X, Mr. Beast or PewDiePie emerge from obscurity, was it inevitable that their talent would be recognized or just luck?

*   Are the top rated reviews on Amazon or answers on Quora really the most helpful?

All of these are questions about the distribution of popularity. And the same phenomenon underlies the answers: networks.

This essay may be a little wonky, but the topic is something I've been thinking about for more than a decade. (Off and on, not continuously.)

I explain why power law-like distributions—meaning a few massive hits and a vast number of misses—are an inherent feature of networks; describe how recommendation systems can either dampen or reinforce social signals; show some examples of the persistence of power law-like distributions in media across movies, TV, music and the creator economy; and discuss why all this matters.

Tl;dr:

*   In an apparent contradiction, the Internet both fragments and concentrates attention.

*   The reason for the former is intuitive. More stuff, less attention per unit of stuff. The reason for the latter is not. It happens because networks are subject to powerful positive feedback loops. On a network, people's choices are influenced by others' decisions, amplifying "hits.”

*   There are two mechanisms underlying this: information cascades (when people treat others' choices as signals of quality) and reputational cascades (when people conform with the group decision). As choice has exploded on the Internet and it has become easier to both observe others' choices and share your own, these mechanisms have become more powerful.

*   Consumers also rely heavily on recommendation algorithms to make choices, intentionally and unintentionally. Depending on how they're constructed, these systems can either boost or dampen the social signals arising from the network.

*   The result is that the distribution of consumption in almost all media persistently, and in some cases increasingly, looks like a power law: a few massive hits and a very, very (very) long tail. I provide a framework for thinking about the "extremeness" of the distribution and show a few examples: box office, Netflix original series, Spotify streams and Patreon patrons.

*   There are a number of important implications for media companies. The good news is that there will likely always be big hits, even in a world of practically infinite content. The bad news is just about everything else: the lucrative middle is being hollowed out; the randomness—and therefore risk-in producing hits is climbing; the tail is become more competitive for hits; more economic rent will

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likely shift to talent; content producers are increasingly at the mercy of curators' algorithms; and paid media is being devalued.

Thanks for reading The Mediator! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

## The Long Tail Was Half Right

The idea that the Internet would cause media fragmentation is almost as old as the modern Internet itself. (Or maybe older. The line often misattributed to Andy Warhol that "in the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes” was a pre-Internet prediction of fragmentation.) In 1999, Qwest Communications produced an ad featuring a motel with “every movie ever made in every language" (Figure 1). [The Long Tail](https://www.wired.com/2004/10/tail/), published in 2004, argued that because the Internet dramatically lowered the cost to store and transport information goods, it would result in practically infinite shelf space. Faced with far more choice, consumers would shift most of their consumption to the "tail,” heralding the end of mass culture and waning importance of hits. If anything, Anderson underestimated the size of the tail because he didn't anticipate social media. The tail is not Icelandic synth pop, as it turns out, but an endless amount of user generated content.

Figure 1. Qwest Envisioned Media Fragmentation 25 Years Ago

<!-- Image Description: The image is a photograph of a vintage motel sign at night. The sign reads "ROY'S MOTEL CAFE" in large, illuminated letters. Below that, in smaller letters, it says "VACANCY." Further down, the sign advertises "EVERY ROOM HAS EVERY MOVIE EVER MADE IN EVERY LANGUAGE DAY OR NIGHT." The sign is brightly lit against the dark sky, and the surrounding area appears to be a desert landscape. The photograph is meant to evoke a sense of nostalgia and the promise of endless entertainment options. -->

Source: Qwest Communications print advertisement, 1999.

That the Internet would yield more choice and, therefore, more fragmentation was intuitive then and is indisputable now. But it only tells half the story. Though it seems contradictory, the Internet both fragments and concentrates attention. This latter idea was explored by Anita Elberse in her book [Blockbusters: Hit-making, Risk-taking, and the Big Business of Entertainment](https://www.amazon.com/Blockbusters-Hit-making-Risk-taking-Business/dp/0547248912), which was in part a rebuttal to The Long Tail. But that book

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was more focused on why suppliers should pursue blockbuster strategies and less about the underlying demand-side dynamics that create hits.

Understanding those dynamics matters. The contention that there are still hits may seem uncontroversial and certainly feels right intuitively. We know that when Beyonce or Taylor Swift releases an album or the next season of Stranger Things or Game of Thrones drops, the collective attention of popular culture, much like the eye of Sauron, will be trained on it—at least until the next thing comes along. But understanding why there are still hits provides insight into whether this will persist as the supply of content keeps growing faster than demand.

Understanding why there are still hits provides insight into whether this will persist and the implications.

The reason the Internet concentrates attention is that it connects everyone in a big network. And networks are subject to powerful feedback loops. Since consumers increasingly both discover and consume content through information networks, their decisions are increasingly influenced by other people's decisions. These feedback loops amplify the popularity of a small number of choices-hits.

The net result of these opposing forces-fragmentation and concentration-is that media consumption, and culture more broadly, is persistently, and in some cases, increasingly observing power-law like distributions. That means that few TV shows, movies, songs, books, video games, journal articles, newsletters, short form videos and tweets will be wildly popular, while the vast (vast, vast, vast...) majority will be hardly consumed at all.

## What is a Power Law?

One of the first statistical concepts we are taught in school, right after mean, median and mode, is the "bell curve," aka the normal or Gaussian distribution. The intuition behind a normal distribution is that if you have enough random independent observations most observations will be relatively close to the average (or mean) and equally distributed on either side of it. Many independent natural phenomena approximate this distribution, especially when the extremes are bounded, like height, weight, test scores or rolling two six-sided dice.

Figure 2. Normal and Power Law Distributions

<!-- Image Description: The image is a diagram illustrating the difference between normal and power law distributions. There are three graphs. The first graph, labeled "NORMAL DISTRIBUTION," shows a bell-shaped curve, indicating that most values cluster around the mean. The second graph, labeled "POWER LAW DISTRIBUTION," shows a curve that starts high and rapidly decreases, indicating that a few values are very high while most are very low. The third graph, labeled "POWER LAW DISTRIBUTION NORMAL DISTRIBUTION," superimposes the power law distribution over the normal distribution, highlighting that the power law distribution has a longer tail and more extreme values compared to the normal distribution. The x-axis of each graph is labeled "Value." -->

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Power law distributions, by contrast, look very different. A power law simply means that the dependent variable is a “power” of the independent variable. For instance, the volume of a cube is a “power” of the length of the sides, because volume increases 3 units for each 1 unit in length. Generally, they can be expressed as:

y = ax

In a power law probability distribution, the exponent is negative, which results in a downward sloping curve (as illustrated crudely in Figure 2). As shown, power law distributions are characterized by a large number of very small observations and a small number of very large observations.

There are plenty of places to explore the technical differences between a normal and power law distribution, including the excellent book [Networks, Crowds and Markets](http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/), available for free here (see Chapter 18).

For our purposes, the main point of this comparison is shown in the graph furthest to the right in Figure 2, which superimposes a power law distribution over a normal distribution: the likelihood of both extremely small and extremely large observations is much greater in the former than the latter.

The main point: in a power law, both extremely small and extremely large observations are much more common.

Perhaps the best way of thinking about these differences is a framework popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan. Think of the world of normal distributions as Mediocristan-a place where everything hovers somewhere around the average and the world of power-law distributions as Extremistan-a place where seemingly extreme things happen much more often.

## Why Do Power Laws Occur in Culture? Networks

As mentioned above, the idea that the Internet causes media fragmentation is intuitive but the idea that it also amplifies hits is not. Let's explore why that happens.

Power laws (or, strictly speaking, power-law like distributions) show up in a lot of places: the incidence of earthquakes, the occurrence of words in any given publication (called Zipf's Law), the population of cities, metabolic scaling among mammals and a whole lot else.

The mechanisms behind these power laws are not always clear (there is debate whether power laws are an inherent property of complex systems). But power laws are common in networks because network phenomena tend to be dependent, meaning there are feedback loops. Each node on the network influences, and is influenced by, other nodes.

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Popularity follows power-law like distributions because people's choices are subject to
feedback loops.

This is particularly true for popularity. Power-law like distributions are everywhere in
media, as shown in this [article](https://archive.ph/o/0cYxS/https://stratechery.com/2023/power-laws-in-culture/) by Michael Tauberg.

## Social Signals Influence Our Choices

So, if networks tend to amplify hits because people often base their choices on what
they see other people do, the next question is: why? For two reasons: 1) it is often
rational to assume that other people's choices contain valuable information; and 2)
people care what others think of them.

These are two distinct phenomena, what social scientists call “information cascades”
and "reputational cascades."

*   Information cascades. What do you do when you have to make a choice and have
    incomplete information? It probably depends on how hard it is to determine the
    quality of your options yourself (“search costs”), as well as the consequences
    (including the reversibility) of making a bad choice (“opportunity costs”). Search
    costs are a function both of the number of choices and the time required to
    ascertain the quality of each choice. For instance, it is easy to quickly judge
    quality when scrolling TikTok and hard when looking for the next multi-season
    TV series. The opportunity cost of listening to the first 8 seconds of a
    recommended song on Spotify is very different than getting a babysitter and going
    to the movies. When search and opportunity costs are low, you may choose to
    figure it out yourself. When they are high and you can see what other people have
    done, it is reasonable to presume that (collectively) other people have more
    information than you do and base your decisions on theirs. When many people do
    this successively, it results in something called an "information cascade." This is
    sometimes called cumulative advantage, preferential attachment or the “rich-get-
    richer effect," whereby popular things tend to get more popular and unpopular
    things stay unpopular.

Taking signals from the network is a rational choice when confronted with high search and
opportunity costs.

*   Social conformity and reputational cascades. When you can see people's choices
    and they can see yours, you may conform, consciously or subconsciously. As a
    generality, we all feel pressure to conform, as was corroborated by famous social
    science experiments in the 1950s-1970s, such as those conducted by Solomon
    Asch. Alternatively, you may intentionally choose to follow the group's decisions
    because you want to signal your allegiance and worthiness of belonging, or what is
    called a reputational cascade.

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(There is also a third reason that people are often influenced by other's choices that
I'm overlooking: network effects. Sometimes people follow the crowd because they
benefit directly from a larger network. This may be a significant factor for fax
machines, operating systems or electric vehicles, but probably has less relevance in
culture. The direct benefits of more developers building apps for Windows or more
Tesla rapid-charging stations are clear; the network effects from a lot of people
watching your favorite TV show or listening to your favorite band are questionable
and may actually be a drawback for people who believe they have unique taste.)

## Social Signals are Becoming More Important

So, people are more likely to be influenced by what other people do when: 1) there are
a lot of choices; and 2) it is easy to observe what other people do.

Over the last two decades, the conditions that lead to cascades have become more prevalent:
choice has exploded and it is far easier to observe others' actions and to be observed.

Both of those conditions have increased dramatically in the last few decades:

*   The amount of content available has exploded, making search costs
    astronomical and increasing opportunity costs. It is obvious that more choice
    means higher search costs. It also means higher opportunity costs, because when
    you make a choice today there are many more things you are choosing not to do.
*   Owing to online networks, people are much more likely to be influenced
    (directly and indirectly) by what other people choose. Many people explicitly
    outsource their content curation to their friends (by relying on the Facebook
    newsfeed), their hand-selected panel of “experts” (on their Twitter timeline) or
    their favorite celebrities or influencers (on Instagram). But sometimes we forget
    that elements of social networking are embedded in non-social networking
    applications too. Go to the Apple app store, Amazon, OpenTable, or even look for
    “restaurants near me" on Google Maps-in every case, you will probably be
    influenced by other people's opinions. Most recommendation algorithms also rely
    in part on collaborative filtering, discussed more below, which is based on the
    collective choices of a group or subgroup. When you accept an algorithm's
    recommendation you are often indirectly influenced by what other people choose,
    whether you know it or not.

Taken together, this means that today, people are much more likely to base their
choices on other people's decisions. This explains the paradox described at the
beginning: while the Internet fragments attention, it also causes cascades that
concentrate attention.

## Recommendation Engines Can Help or Hurt

Confronted with so much choice, consumers don't only depend on the organic social
signals they receive from the network, they also rely (to varying degrees, depending on
the person and type of media) on recommendation systems. Those systems may
amplify or dampen the influence of the network, depending on how they are
engineered.

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Recommendation algorithms are based on two primary types of models: collaborative
filtering and content models. In the former, the algorithm recommends content or
products based on what other people have chosen. In the latter, recommendations are
based on certain attributes of the content or products themselves.

Recommendation systems can amplify or dampen social signals, depending on how
they're built.

It is common for these algorithms to include elements of both models. For instance, in
its recommendation system Netflix incorporates all kinds of metadata associated with
each content asset (director, actors, genre, age rating, tone) and popularity (viewership,
completion rates and ratings) among cohorts it believes are similar to the customer, as
well as prior viewing behavior by the customer (device, time of day, time spent
viewing). TikTok similarly bases its algorithm on user behavior, collaborative filtering
and specific content attributes, among other things. By contrast, Pandora's
recommendation system is uncommon because it is based solely on content attributes,
not on any collaborative filtering.

## A Simple Framework

As mentioned, power-law like distributions are ubiquitous in media, but to varying
degrees. Synthesizing the last two sections, I'll propose a few rules of thumb for
predicting when distributions will be more, or less, extreme:

*   Higher search costs = more extreme distributions (because people need to rely
    more heavily on social signals)
*   Higher opportunity costs = more extreme distributions (also because people are
    more likely to seek out social signals before committing)
*   Recommendation systems that lean heavily toward collaborative filtering = more
    extreme distributions (because the algorithm amplifies the social signals)

## A Little Math

How do we know a popularity distribution is a power law and how do we measure
"extreme?"

Answering those requires a little more math. As shown above, the general
mathematical expression of a power law looks like this:

y = ax

In a pure power law, c is a constant, which can be thought of a scaling factor. In a
power law distribution, c is also negative, which is why the curve is downward sloping.
It can be hard to tell whether this scaling factor is constant just by looking-and
therefore whether it is really a power law. An easier way is to convert the data to a log-
log plot and determine whether the resulting relationship is linear. To see why, we
take the log of both sides of the equation above:

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log (y) = log (a) + c log (x)

That is a linear function, equivalent to y = b + mx. In other words, if we really have a
power law (or something power-law like), the log-log plot should look like a straight
line, where the slope is c and, the larger (or more negative) the value of c, the more
"extreme" it is. We can also test how straight it is, and therefore whether the scaling
factor is really a constant, by calculating the r².

Figure 3. Popularity Distributions Usually Show Value as a Function of Probability (or Rank)

The image shows two graphs. The first graph has "Value" on the x-axis and "Probability of value" on the y-axis. The graph shows a curve that starts high on the y-axis and decreases as it moves to the right on the x-axis. The second graph has "Probability of value" on the x-axis and "Value" on the y-axis. The graph shows a curve that starts high on the y-axis and decreases as it moves to the right on the x-axis. The graph is labeled with "The 'head'" and "The 'tail'".

## A Few Examples (and Caveats)

Below, I look at some representative time series of consumption distribution for a few
media: box office, TV series on Netflix, streams on Spotify and Patreon creators.

(One quick note: In the power law distribution above in Figure 2, the Y-axis is
probability and X-axis is value to better compare normal and power law distributions. A
more intuitive and common way to discuss popularity distributions is to flip the axes
so that the Y-axis is the value and the X-axis is the probability, which is also a power
law (Figure 3). This shows that only a handful of observations will be extremely large
(what is colloquially called the “head”) and a vast number will be very small (the “tail”).
This is how I discuss popularity distributions below.)

This analysis is imperfect, for a few reasons. I would like to have longer time series
than I show here (box office is great, at ~20 years, but it would be great to have 20 years
of music data too). Also, the data for Spotify and Patreon only show the distribution of
consumption at the head of the curve. Since power laws are self-similar (or "scale
invariant"), in theory the distribution at the head of the curve is representative of the
entire distribution, but if these are not pure power laws that may not be the case.

Putting those aside, all four of these examples show persistently extreme distributions
that closely approximate power laws.

## Box Office

Relative to most other media, moviegoers face very few choices but extraordinarily
high opportunity costs. Not surprisingly, the relative distribution of consumption has
become even more concentrated in the top hits in recent years. Figure 4 shows the
distribution of total U.S. box office in 2000, 2010, 2019 and 2022 and the same data on a
log-log basis. As shown by the r-squared values in the log-log plots, these are close to

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power law distributions. As also shown, over that time period the distribution has
gotten increasingly extreme (i.e., the slope on the log-log plots has gotten increasingly
negative); on a relative basis, the biggest hits are bigger than ever.

Figure 4. Distribution of Box Office Getting More Extreme

The image shows two graphs related to the distribution of total US box office revenue.

The first graph, titled "DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL US BOX OFFICE," displays the percentage of total US box office revenue against release rank for the years 2000, 2010, 2019, and 2022. The graph shows that the top-ranked movies account for a larger percentage of the total box office revenue in more recent years.

The second graph, titled "DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL US BOX OFFICE LOG-LOG," presents the same data on a log-log scale. This transformation helps to visualize the power-law distribution of box office revenue. The graph includes R² and Slope values for each year, indicating the goodness of fit of the power-law model. The R² values are close to 1, suggesting a strong fit, and the slopes are negative, indicating a decreasing trend.

Source: Box Office Mojo, Author analysis.

## Netflix TV Series

In TV, the search and opportunity costs of finding and committing to a TV series are
pretty high, which should lead to relatively extreme distributions. But it's tough to test
shifts in popularity distributions over time for all of TV because there is no good
cross-platform (linear and streaming) measurement. And although Nielsen now
provides streaming ratings, it's only been doing so for a couple of years.

The best data I could find was from the good people at Parrot Analytics, who provided
me a time series of global demand for Netflix original series. Parrot's demand metric

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incorporates a variety of inputs (social, fan and critic ratings, piracy, wikis, blogs, etc.)
to gauge the popularity of each series and movie on each streaming service.

The most remarkable takeaway from this data is that it remains relatively skewed and
is becoming more power-law like over time despite Netflix's big international push
over this timeframe. As noted, this is global demand and measures a period when
Netflix added about 100 million subscribers, almost all of which were international,
and its annual cash content spend increased from $13 billion to $17 billion, much of
which was local content.

Despite its growth and increased spend internationally, as shown in Figure 5, globally
demand remains concentrated in relatively few titles. Note that in 2018, 2020 and 2022,
the top 10% of originals represented ~95%, 85% and 75% of all global demand on
Netflix, respectively.

Figure 5. Demand for Netflix Series Has Remained Skewed Despite Big International
Expansion

The image shows two line graphs related to the distribution of global demand among the top 250 series on Netflix. The first graph shows the distribution on a linear scale, while the second graph shows the distribution on a log-log scale. Both graphs plot data for the years 2018, 2020, and 2022. The log-log graph also includes R-squared values and slopes for each year. The graphs illustrate how demand is concentrated among a few top series, and how this concentration has changed over time.

Note: Parrot Analytics' demand metric incorporates a variety of inputs to measure the
popularity of series and movies. Source: Parrot Analytics, Author analysis.

Spotify Streams

Music is an interesting case because there are factors working in both directions. On
the one hand, with so much choice (Spotify has over 80 million tracks and 100,000 new
songs uploaded every day), listeners use both social signals and recommendation
engines to discover new music. And most streaming services' recommendation

[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS)

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engines rely heavily on collaborative filtering (see a description of Spotify's
recommendation engine here). This implies a relatively extreme distribution.

On the other hand, the search costs and opportunity cost of trying a new song are very
low and easily reversed (you can easily skip to the next song). Both of those factors
support a broader dispersion of consumption.

The result is that consumption in the head is extremely skewed toward the biggest
hits, but also that more aggregate consumption is shifting into the tail. By implication,
the "middle" is even skinnier than you would see in a pure power law.

Figure 6 shows the distribution of consumption among all the songs that appeared in
Spotify's Global Top 200 Weekly at least once, in both 2017 and 2022 (and the same
data on a log-log basis). In both years, that was about 1,000 songs. (This is the very
head of the curve-it's the top 1,000 songs out of 80 million, or the top 0.001%.) As
illustrated by the slope on the log-log plots, the distribution is very extreme, even
more so than box office. As is also evident, the slope is not constant; it becomes more
negative as you move past the 100th most popular song. That means the biggest hits
are even bigger on a relative basis and even more consumption is occurring in the tail
than would occur in a true power law.

Figure 6. The Head of the Spotify Curve Remains Extreme...

The image shows two line graphs related to the distribution of top songs on Spotify. The first graph shows the percentage of total streams among songs appearing in the weekly chart of top 200 songs globally, plotted against song rank. The second graph shows the same data on a log-log scale. Both graphs plot data for the years 2017 and 2022. The log-log graph also includes R-squared values and slopes for each year. The graphs illustrate how consumption is skewed towards the top songs, and how this skewness has changed over time.

[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS)

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Source: Spotify, Author analysis.

The idea that more consumption is shifting to the tail is corroborated by aggregate
consumption data. As shown in Figure 7, based on Spotify's reporting, the three
majors (Universal, Sony and Warner Music) and Merlin (a partnership of independent
labels) represented 77% of total streams in 2021, down 10 percentage points from 2017.

Figure 7. ...But More Consumption is Also Shifting to the Tail

The image is a bar graph showing the combined distribution market share of annual Spotify plays for Universal Music, Sony Music, Warner Music, and Merlin (%). The graph displays data from 2017 to 2021, with the market share decreasing from 87% in 2017 to 77% in 2021.

Source: Spotify company reports, via Music Business Worldwide.

Patreon Creators

Patreon provides a backend solution for creators to sell subscriptions, with more than
250,000 creators on the platform and 13 million patrons. It is also an interesting
example because consumption distribution is unaffected by recommendation
algorithms. While Patreon.com features a handful of creators on its landing page, few
consumers visit it. They primarily navigate directly to creators' Patreon pages from
wherever their work is featured, such as YouTube, Apple podcasts or their websites.

With no amplifying effect from recommendation algorithms, it should show a slightly
less skewed distribution than some other examples. Figure 8 shows the distribution of
the top 1,000 creators at the end of both 2016 and 2022 and the log-log data. Again, this
is the head of the curve, or 0.4% of creators in 2022. As shown, the distribution tracks
almost exactly as a power law, but the slope is less extreme than the prior examples.

Figure 8. The Creator Economy Observes Power Laws Too

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The image shows two line graphs related to the distribution of patrons to top creators on Patreon. The first graph shows the distribution on a linear scale, while the second graph shows the distribution on a log-log scale. Both graphs plot data for the years 2016 and 2022. The log-log graph also includes R-squared values and slopes for each year. The graphs illustrate how patrons are distributed among the top creators, and how this distribution has changed over time.

Source: Graphtreon, Author analysis.

So What? Understanding the Pervasive Implications of
Power Laws

As my 11th grade history teacher Mr. Conroy used to say "So what?" The persistence
of these highly skewed consumption distributions has very important practical
implications for the media business and culture more broadly.

Hits Will Persist in an Infinite Content World

As mentioned at the top, lately I have been writing about the inevitability of Infinite
TV as the quality distinction between professional and independent/creator content
blurs.

One of the questions I got back was: will there still be hits in such a world?

The short answer: there will likely always be hits, if not even larger ones. As described
above, the more choice, the more consumers need to rely on social signals and
recommendation engines (which in turn rely on social signals) to manage search costs.
This is already evident in music. High production value tools have been democratized,
leading to a practically infinite amount of high production value music. But massive
hits persist.

[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS)

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OK, but can we really use the word "always"? Let's go really far out. What if eventually
generative Al is able to create distinct personalized content for each individual? In a
recent post about generative AI, Sequoia posited that by 2030, movies will be
"personalized dreams” (Figure 9).

Figure 9. Will All Content be “Personalized Dreams"?

The image is a table that outlines the evolution of AI capabilities in content creation across different media types (text, code, images, video/3D/gaming) from pre-2020 to a projected 2030. It shows a progression from basic tasks like spam detection and auto-complete to advanced capabilities like generating final drafts better than professional writers and developers, and ultimately, personalized video games and movies by 2030.

Source: Sequoia.

This may not be as far fetched as it sounds, at least technologically. Let's say that by
2035 we are all wearing AR glasses, which record data about us that put Google and
Facebook to shame. They track our gaze, including the length of time we linger on
anything and the dilation of our pupils, respiration and heart rate (h/t Rony Abovitz).
They might know more about us than we know ourselves. Let's go even further.
Perhaps we'll wear devices that record brain activity as we sleep and reconstruct the
imagery from our dreams. Sound crazy? Researchers in Japan just showed that this is
already possible.

There is no way to disprove the concept of individualized content. But just because it
might be technically possible doesn't mean it will be popular. It runs counter to two
fundamental human needs: 1) People want agency (or at least the appearance of
agency) in their choices-they don't want to be reduced to an algorithm. (Which is
why Netflix recently removed its "Surprise Me" button.) 2) More important, we are
ultimately social animals and have a need to coalesce around common experiences. As
I discussed in another recent essay, for many people, those shared experiences are
entertainment (sports, music, gaming, movies, TV shows). At a time when loneliness is
considered a public health crisis, it is hard to imagine that we would forego shared
experiences and retreat to lonely theaters of one.

Bye, Bye Middle

If the biggest hits are as big as ever-or bigger—and the tail is also getting bigger,
another implication is that the middle is going away.

What's the middle? Consider the middle any content that attracted attention (and
economics) solely because it benefited from formerly scarce distribution: local
newspapers largely comprising syndicated news, TV stations with weak local
coverage, radio stations without distinctive on-air personalities, middling general
entertainment cable networks populated with second-tier reruns or inexpensive reality
programming, mid-budget me-too theatrical releases, etc. It's hard to define "the

[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS)

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# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro

middle" with precision, but it's safe to say that historically the middle has collectively
generated a substantial proportion of profits in every media vertical.

The dwindling middle has generated a substantial portion of profits in every media vertical.

## Hits Include a Big Dose of Luck

Another important implication of this "power-lawing" is that hits are increasingly
random because of how information cascades work. To be clear, I'm not arguing that
all hits are random, but that luck is becoming more important.

Hits are not completely random, but the role of luck is increasing.

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More than 15 years ago, researchers Matthew Salganik, Peter Dodds and Duncan
Watts conducted an experiment to determine the effect of social influence on content
choices. They split 14,000 subjects into nine groups, one "independent group" and
eight "social influence groups." All the subjects were invited to visit a website where
they were asked to rate 48 unknown songs by unknown bands. They were able to
download the songs if they chose. In the eight social influence groups, subjects could
see how many times each song had been downloaded by prior visitors from their
group; in the independent group, they couldn't. At the end, the researchers tallied the
popularity of the songs in each group.

The major conclusions were twofold: 1) each of the nine groups had different rankings
of the songs (while some songs tended to be more popular and some songs were
consistently less popular, other than that the rankings were quite different); and 2) the
distribution of popularity within the social influence groups was more extreme than in
the independent group. The second conclusion supports the main point of this essay,
namely that the presence of social signals will cause the distribution of popularity to
be more skewed. (And keep in mind that in this experiment the only signal was the
number of previous downloads, so the participants were only subject to information
cascades, not pressure to conform or reputational cascades. In the real world, the
social signals are a lot stronger.)

But let's think about the implications of the first conclusion, namely that each group
produced a different popularity ranking. It implies that hits require a high degree of
luck.

To see why this happens, try out a thought experiment (borrowed from Michael
Mauboussin). Imagine a barrel with 1,000 balls in it, each of which is numbered 1-10,
and there are 100 of each number (100 #1s, 100 #2s, etc.). Also imagine you have 10
urns, each marked 1-10. Now randomly pick 10 balls out of the barrel and, based on
the number marked on each, put each ball in its corresponding urn. Replace the 10
balls you removed from the barrel with new balls, but this time the distribution of new
balls will be equivalent to the distribution of balls in the urns. (If there are two balls in
urn #2 and none in #3, then two of the new balls should be marked #2 and none should

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# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro

be marked #3.) Keep running the process, removing 10 balls from the barrel at random,
placing them in the corresponding urns, and adding new balls to the barrel based on
the distribution of balls in the urns. After you run this process for enough cycles, what
you find is that the urns with more balls are increasingly likely to have more balls
added each time.

Or think of a real-world example: Amazon reviews. The Amazon algorithm places the
reviews with the most "helpful" votes at the top. Naturally, most people start at the top
and read just a few reviews. The first reviews written for a new book will appear at the
top of the page (for lack of many reviews). So, they are more likely to be read and
deemed helpful than subsequent reviews. This creates a positive feedback loop: they
are more likely to remain near the top of the page, making it likely that new visitors
will mark them as helpful, cementing their position at the top of the page.

In a networked environment, hits are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

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This phenomenon (which above I referred to as the rich-get-richer effect, cumulative
advantage or preferential attachment) shows that in a networked environment
popularity is influenced by luck and highly sensitive to initial conditions. The balls
that happen to be selected first (or the reviews that are written first) have a much
higher likelihood of dominating. Even in a hypothetical world in which all content was
of equal quality there would still be massive, random hits. Was the success of
PewDiePie or Charlie Puth inevitable? Hard to say.

As content consumption is increasingly affected by network dynamics, this means that
hits will become more unpredictable. And just as in the financial markets, higher
volatility means higher risk, and higher risk means lower returns.

## Hits Can (and Will) Emerge from the Tail

A corollary of the prior point is that hits can, and will, emerge from the tail. Again,
this is already evident in music. As I wrote in Infinite TV:

[A]lmost all of the new breakout acts of the last few years-like The Weeknd, Billie
Eilish, Lil Uzi Vert, XXXTentacion, Bad Bunny, Post Malone, Migos and many
more-emerged from the tail of self-distributed content, not from A&R reps
hanging around at 2AM for the last act.

Writing compelling fiction, composing a catchy pop song, conceiving innovative
gameplay or writing a great screenplay are extraordinarily rare talents. It is reasonable
to think that many of the people capable of doing these things, with persistence and
luck, are able to succeed through the traditional channels of content production and
win the support of the small handful of people who control resources at places like
HarperCollins, Republic Records, Blizzard or Universal Pictures. But how many
creative "lost Einsteins" are there who have fell through the cracks? Thousands? Tens
of Thousands? Hundreds of thousands?

Just has occurred with the music labels, every traditional producer of any type of
content should be prepared to both discover talent that emerges from the tail and

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# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro

compete with it.

## There's a Reason Every Movie Star Wears Tights

If it sometimes feels like every movie is a prequel or sequel or about superheroes (or
both) and every new TV show is a spinoff or reboot, that's because a disproportionate
percentage of them are (as discussed in this article by Adam Mastroianni).

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this article

The reasons often cited for this include entertainment companies' crass
commercialism, the death of creativity and the dumbing-down of the American
consumer, among others. But looking at this through the lens of the network dynamics
described in this essay suggests several other reinforcing reasons. Established IP
reduces risk because it:

*   Lowers consumer search costs. As discussed above, consumers are overwhelmed
    by choice and the resulting high search costs. Well-known brands, talent and
    franchises reduce those costs, making consumers less reliant on network signals.
*   Benefits from a pre-existing community. As also discussed, consumers
    sometimes choose content because of a desire to join a community or enhance
    their standing within it. Established IP has established communities, increasing
    the community's influence.

Whether this is good or bad is a different question. There is a risk that major media
companies lean too heavily on established IP and all the innovative ideas instead
emerge from the tail. But there is a clear logic behind it.

## Rents Will Likely Shift Even More Toward Top Talent

The details of how talent is compensated in creative businesses can be extraordinarily
complicated and opaque. If you abstract it out, however, ultimately talent
compensation is a function of the underlying economic structure of the industries in
which they operate.

At a time when there is both more transparency of performance data and greater
competition for superstars, a more extreme distribution of consumption will likely
shift even more bargaining power to the top talent.

## No One is Policing the Algorithm

Algorithms clearly influence the distribution of consumption and they will become
increasingly important. According to Spotify, 1/3 of new music discovery occurs
through algorithmic recommendation. Netflix says that 80% of watch time comes from
its recommendations and 20% from direct search (but it also concedes that "users tend
to come to the service with a specific show, movie or genre in mind"). All things equal,
the more choice, the more consumers will seek help in choosing, whether from the
organic social signals that emerge from the network or recommendation systems.

Platforms have a strong incentive to surface the best recommendations. More usage
increases consumer affinity, improves retention and, for ad supported platforms,
increases revenue. But, at least on the margin, they may have other incentives. Spotify
and Netflix both have an incentive to reduce their reliance on their largest suppliers.
Both Spotify and TikTok disclose that “commercial considerations” influence their
recommendations. Not much can or will likely be done about this, but the opacity and

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importance of algorithms will become an increasingly important competitive
advantage for content aggregators over time.

## The Creator Economy and Web3 Live in Extremistan Too

Much has been written (including by me) about the rise of the creator economy and
platforms and tools that enable creators to connect directly with—and generate
revenue from-fans (not just Patreon, but Substack, OnlyFans, Cameo and many
others). Web3 promises an even more decisive step in that direction. Since web3
applications are decentralized, data is not mediated by centralized servers and creators
retain ownership of their product. For many people, the greatest promise of web3 is to
redistribute power and value from centralized institutions to creators and users.

While both the evolution of the creator economy and web3 should enable more
creators to make a living wage, redistribution should not be confused with equal
distribution, something I also discussed here. As shown in the popularity distributions
for Patreon creators above, as long as there are network dynamics, there will be power-
law like popularity distributions.

## Earned Media is Increasingly Important

Back to Salganik, Dodds and Watts for a moment. As mentioned, some of the subjects
were placed in an independent group that received no social signals at all. The
researchers used this group's popularity ranking of songs as a proxy for “quality." What
they found among the other groups was that the songs considered best by the
independent group rarely did poorly and the songs considered the worst rarely did
very well, but anything else could happen.

Quality matters in popularity. Complete crap will fail. But, above some threshold of quality,
popularity is highly reliant on network dynamics.

The implication is that, as any marketer would tell you, marketing matters. Quality
will not necessarily naturally rise to the top. The question is how to market.

Marketers draw a distinction between paid, earned and owned media. Paid is
traditional advertising: TV, outdoor, print, radio, retail media, display, search and
social. Earned is PR and word-of-mouth, increasingly through influencers. And owned
is the brand's own marketing channels, such as its branded content, website, retail
outlets, catalogs, etc. Media companies tend to rely very heavily on paid media-think
of massive advertising campaigns to launch a new show or movie. As more content
discovery occurs through the network itself, the value of paid media is increasingly
diluted. It also becomes more important for marketers to understand what signals are
emerging organically and how to use both paid and earned media to amplify or
counter those signals.

## We're Not in Kansas Anymore

Almost 30 years since the IPO of Netscape, the media industry is still coming to grips
with the implications of the Internet. The reality that it fragments attention is
intuitive. The reasons why it also amplifies hits are less well understood.

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# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro

For media companies, the implications of operating in a networked world are a mixed
bag, at best. The good news is that hits still matter and likely always will. The bad
news is just about everything else: the lucrative middle is being hollowed out; risk is
climbing; the tail is become more competitive for hits; bargaining power is shifting to
the top talent; content producers are increasingly at the mercy of curators' algorithms;
and paid media is being devalued. As consumers grapple with a growing tsunami of
options, these dynamics will become more pronounced. None of this will get easier.

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