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rio: extract claims from 2026-04-11-rasmont-rebuttal-vacuum-lesswrong 
- Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-11-rasmont-rebuttal-vacuum-lesswrong.md
- Domain: internet-finance
- Claims: 2, Entities: 2
- Enrichments: 2
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Rio <PIPELINE>
2026-04-11 22:30:46 +00:00

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Raw Blame History

type entity_type name status domains
entity person Mikhail Samin active
internet-finance

Mikhail Samin

LessWrong contributor who has written on futarchy's causal-inference properties.

Timeline

  • 2025-06-27 — Published "No, Futarchy Doesn't Have This EDT Flaw" on LessWrong, arguing that conditional markets can be structured to track causal effects

Known Work

  • Addressed earlier EDT (Evidential Decision Theory) framings of the futarchy critique, predating Rasmont's specific Bronze Bull/selection-correlation formulation
  • Argued that conditional market structure can resolve the evidential-vs-causal problem

Significance

Represents pre-Rasmont attempts to address the causal-inference problem in futarchy, though did not specifically address the selection-correlation mechanism that Rasmont later formalized.