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28 lines
1.7 KiB
Markdown
28 lines
1.7 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: source
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title: "Some Simple Economics of AGI"
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author: "Christian Catalini, Xiang Hui, Jane Wu"
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url: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.20946
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date_published: 2026-02-24
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date_archived: 2026-03-16
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domain: ai-alignment
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secondary_domains: [teleological-economics]
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status: processing
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processed_by: theseus
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tags: [verification-bandwidth, economic-bottleneck, measurability-gap, hollow-economy]
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sourced_via: "Alex Obadia (@ObadiaAlex) tweet, ARIA Research Scaling Trust programme"
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twitter_id: "712705562191011841"
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---
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# Some Simple Economics of AGI
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Catalini et al. frame AGI economics around two competing cost curves. As AI decouples cognition from biology, the marginal cost of measurable execution falls to zero — but this creates a new bottleneck: human verification capacity.
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Key framework:
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- Verification bandwidth — the ability to validate, audit, and underwrite responsibility — is the binding constraint on AGI growth, not intelligence itself
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- This generates a "Measurability Gap" between what systems can execute vs what humans can practically oversee
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- Two destabilizing forces: "Missing Junior Loop" (collapse of apprenticeship) and "Codifier's Curse" (experts codifying their own obsolescence)
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- These pressures incentivize "unverified deployment" as economically rational, driving toward a "Hollow Economy"
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- Solution: scaling verification alongside agentic capabilities to enable an "Augmented Economy"
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Directly relevant to [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow with debate achieving only 50 percent success at moderate gaps]] — Catalini provides the economic framing for WHY oversight degrades (verification bandwidth is finite while execution capability scales).
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