26 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
26 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: claim
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domain: grand-strategy
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description: Montreal Protocol succeeded because DuPont developed viable HFC alternatives in 1986, one year before the treaty, not because CFC industry stakes were low
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confidence: experimental
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source: Multiple sources (Wikipedia, Rapid Transition Alliance, LSE Grantham Institute, EPA)
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created: 2026-04-03
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attribution:
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extractor:
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- handle: "leo"
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sourcer:
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- handle: "multiple-sources-(wikipedia,-rapid-transition-alliance,-lse-grantham-institute,-epa)"
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context: "Multiple sources (Wikipedia, Rapid Transition Alliance, LSE Grantham Institute, EPA)"
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---
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# Binding international governance for high-stakes technologies requires commercial migration paths to exist at signing, not low competitive stakes at inception
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The Montreal Protocol is frequently cited as the canonical success case for international environmental governance, but the enabling conditions have been misunderstood. The CFC industry, led by DuPont, actively opposed regulation through the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy and testified against unilateral regulation in 1987, the same year the treaty was signed. The critical turning point was DuPont's 1986 development of viable HFC alternatives. Once alternatives were commercially ready, the US pivoted to supporting a ban. As the Rapid Transition Alliance documents: 'Initially the producers of CFCs were hostile to any regulation, but by the time the Montreal Protocol was being considered, the market had changed and the possibilities of profiting from the production of CFC substitutes had greatly increased — favouring some of the larger producers that had begun to research alternatives.' The treaty formalized what commercial interests had already made inevitable. The stakes were HIGH for incumbents (DuPont had enormous CFC revenues), but a viable migration path existed. This refines the 'low competitive stakes at inception' condition to 'commercial migration path available at signing' — governance can succeed even when stakes are high if actors have already invested in alternatives.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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- technology-governance-coordination-gaps-close-when-four-enabling-conditions-are-present-visible-triggering-events-commercial-network-effects-low-competitive-stakes-at-inception-or-physical-manifestation.md
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Topics:
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- [[_map]]
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