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6 changed files with 65 additions and 8 deletions
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@ -12,6 +12,12 @@ created: 2026-03-04
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Rock Game raised $272 against a $10 target (27.2x oversubscription) on futardio, demonstrating continued ability of futarchy-governed launches to attract speculative capital even for trivial projects with minimal substance.
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### Additional Evidence (challenge)
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*Source: [[2026-03-04-futardio-launch-xorrabet]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
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XorraBet raised N/A (effectively $0) against a $410K target despite positioning as a futarchy-governed betting platform with a $166B addressable market narrative. This suggests futarchy governance alone does not guarantee capital attraction when the underlying product lacks market validation or credibility.
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---
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# Futarchy-governed meme coins attract speculative capital at scale
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@ -31,13 +31,19 @@ The variance pattern also interacts with the prediction accuracy failure: market
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- Grants Council unique selections: Extra Finance, Gyroscope, Reservoir
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- Prediction overconfidence at tails: Rocket Pool $59.4M predicted vs $0 actual, Balancer & Beets -$13.7M actual despite $47.9M predicted
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### Additional Evidence (challenge)
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*Source: [[2026-03-05-futardio-launch-blockrock]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
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BlockRock's charter claims futarchy solves the asset management problem through 'performance-optimized decisions' where 'decisions are priced by participants with capital at stake to maximize risk-adjusted returns.' However, their launch immediately failed with only $100 raised against $500K target, suggesting futarchy may filter out projects before they can demonstrate variance. The mechanism may prevent launches rather than create portfolio variance.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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- [[Living Capital vehicles pair Living Agent domain expertise with futarchy-governed investment to direct capital toward crucial innovations.md]]
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- [[optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have different manipulation risk profiles.md]]
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- [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md]]
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- Living Capital vehicles pair Living Agent domain expertise with futarchy-governed investment to direct capital toward crucial innovations.md
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- optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have different manipulation risk profiles.md
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- futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md
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Topics:
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- [[domains/internet-finance/_map]]
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- [[core/living-capital/_map]]
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- domains/internet-finance/_map
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- core/living-capital/_map
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@ -47,6 +47,12 @@ This structure is untested in practice. Key risks:
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MycoRealms allocates 3M tokens (18.9% of supply) to team with zero circulating at launch, unlocking only at 2x/4x/8x/16x/32x ICO price via 3-month TWAP after 18-month cliff. Physical infrastructure project demonstrates mechanism applies beyond pure digital contexts.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2026-03-04-futardio-launch-xorrabet]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
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XorraBet structured 4M team tokens (20% of supply) with five tranches unlocking at 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x, and 32x price multiples, with an 18-month cliff and 3-month TWAP evaluation. At launch, 0 team tokens circulate, and if the token never reaches 2x, the team receives nothing.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -6,9 +6,13 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/24fzAzy51sUFSnRf4qpTqSrrugiKcJ8uVh2TSnQrDdoY"
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date: 2026-03-04
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domain: internet-finance
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format: data
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status: unprocessed
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status: enrichment
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tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
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event_type: launch
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processed_by: rio
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processed_date: 2026-03-16
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enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-governed-meme-coins-attract-speculative-capital-at-scale.md", "performance-unlocked-team-tokens-with-price-multiple-triggers-and-twap-settlement-create-long-term-alignment-without-initial-dilution.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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---
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## Launch Details
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@ -414,3 +418,13 @@ This aligns **protocol decisions with token holder incentives**.
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- Token mint: `FomAXpkLuZRXg4RHf8Rzedr4LjaeNTNhrDphChuQmeta`
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- Version: v0.7
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- Closed: 2026-03-05
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## Key Facts
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- XorraBet targeted $410,000 USDC fundraise on Futardio
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- Global online gambling projected to exceed $166B by 2030
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- XorraBet planned $29,000 monthly burn rate over 12 months
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- 20% of raised funds ($82K) allocated to liquidity provision
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- First post-raise proposal planned for $60K development spending
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- Token: Fom (FomAXpkLuZRXg4RHf8Rzedr4LjaeNTNhrDphChuQmeta)
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- Launch address: 24fzAzy51sUFSnRf4qpTqSrrugiKcJ8uVh2TSnQrDdoY
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@ -6,9 +6,13 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/J7CmLqfMLVq67swRQa6xCWn7VcyfpyhFSiQdJYNwkP8k"
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date: 2026-03-05
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domain: internet-finance
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format: data
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status: unprocessed
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status: enrichment
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tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
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event_type: launch
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processed_by: rio
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processed_date: 2026-03-16
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enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-because-mechanism-selects-both-top-performers-and-worst-performers-simultaneously.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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---
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## Launch Details
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@ -193,3 +197,12 @@ BlockRock is designed to scale to trillions in assets under management. The toke
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- Token mint: `D9o2F3Pu7gowtZr1PjPFiQr4DwVPkNJhqPjpVRwjmeta`
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- Version: v0.7
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- Closed: 2026-03-06
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## Key Facts
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- BlockRock raised $100 against $500K target on futard.io (0.02% of goal)
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- BlockRock entered refunding status within 24 hours of launch
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- BlackRock earns ~73% revenue from management fees, ~5% from performance fees
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- BlackRock has 20,000+ employees, 70+ global offices, 1,700+ ETFs
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- Asset management industry is $120T+
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- MtnCapital was an early-stage VC fund on MetaDAO that wound down, returning treasury to holders
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@ -6,9 +6,13 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/rFdgjcZYHgcsGy44iyvN95JRjB3Yr8APps437cd2HEL"
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date: 2026-03-05
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domain: internet-finance
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format: data
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status: unprocessed
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status: null-result
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tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
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event_type: launch
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processed_by: rio
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processed_date: 2026-03-16
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 0 claims, 0 rejected by validator"
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---
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## Launch Details
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@ -202,3 +206,11 @@ Campaign live on futard.io — support the FUTARDIO Boat.
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- Token mint: `6AuEKXSe1yesLW4zFU8hqaevutQ87ow7meftr8Pbmeta`
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- Version: v0.7
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- Closed: 2026-03-06
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## Key Facts
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- FUTARDIO Boat targeted €150,000 raise for 24-month canal boat operations
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- Proposed monthly burn rate of €5,000 for lease, crew, and maintenance
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- Amsterdam canals require electric vessels for central canal access
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- Campaign closed March 6, 2026 in refunding status
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- Project planned May 2026 public launch if funded
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