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18 changed files with 228 additions and 5 deletions
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@ -23,6 +23,12 @@ The competitive dynamics (Lilly vs. Novo vs. generics post-2031) will drive pric
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Real-world persistence data from 125,474 commercially insured patients shows the chronic use model fails not because patients choose indefinite use, but because most cannot sustain it: only 32.3% of non-diabetic obesity patients remain on GLP-1s at one year, dropping to approximately 15% at two years. This creates a paradox for payer economics—the "inflationary chronic use" concern assumes sustained adherence, but the actual problem is insufficient persistence. Under capitation, payers pay for 12 months of therapy ($2,940 at $245/month) for patients who discontinue and regain weight, capturing net cost with no downstream savings from avoided complications. The economics only work if adherence is sustained AND the payer captures downstream benefits—with 85% discontinuing by two years, the downstream cardiovascular and metabolic savings that justify the cost never materialize for most patients.
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Real-world persistence data from 125,474 commercially insured patients shows the chronic use model fails not because patients choose indefinite use, but because most cannot sustain it: only 32.3% of non-diabetic obesity patients remain on GLP-1s at one year, dropping to approximately 15% at two years. This creates a paradox for payer economics—the "inflationary chronic use" concern assumes sustained adherence, but the actual problem is insufficient persistence. Under capitation, payers pay for 12 months of therapy ($2,940 at $245/month) for patients who discontinue and regain weight, capturing net cost with no downstream savings from avoided complications. The economics only work if adherence is sustained AND the payer captures downstream benefits—with 85% discontinuing by two years, the downstream cardiovascular and metabolic savings that justify the cost never materialize for most patients.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2024-05-29-nejm-flow-trial-semaglutide-kidney-outcomes]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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FLOW trial's kidney protection creates the strongest per-patient economic case for GLP-1s because dialysis costs $90K+/year. Slowing eGFR decline by 1.16 mL/min/1.73m2 annually could delay or prevent dialysis for many patients. CKD is among the most expensive chronic conditions to manage. This represents the downstream savings mechanism most favorable to value-based care cost-saving thesis, though no cost-effectiveness analysis was included in the trial publication.
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@ -30,6 +30,12 @@ For value-based care models and capitated payers, this multi-organ protection cr
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- Nature Medicine: additive benefits with SGLT2 inhibitors
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- Nature Medicine: additive benefits with SGLT2 inhibitors
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- First GLP-1 to receive FDA indication for CKD in T2D patients
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- First GLP-1 to receive FDA indication for CKD in T2D patients
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2024-05-29-nejm-flow-trial-semaglutide-kidney-outcomes]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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FLOW trial demonstrated cardiovascular death reduction of 29% (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.89) and 18% lower risk of major cardiovascular events in a kidney-focused trial. The cardiovascular benefits emerged as secondary findings in a renal outcomes study, suggesting multi-organ protection is not just additive but potentially synergistic. Separate analysis in Nature Medicine showed additive benefits when used with SGLT2 inhibitors.
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -28,6 +28,12 @@ This is the first dedicated kidney outcomes trial with a GLP-1 receptor agonist,
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- FDA indication expansion to T2D patients with CKD (2024)
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- FDA indication expansion to T2D patients with CKD (2024)
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- Dialysis cost benchmark: $90K+/year per patient
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- Dialysis cost benchmark: $90K+/year per patient
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2024-05-29-nejm-flow-trial-semaglutide-kidney-outcomes]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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FLOW trial (N=3,533, median 3.4 years follow-up) showed 24% reduction in major kidney disease events (HR 0.76, P=0.0003), kidney-specific components HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94), and annual eGFR slope less steep by 1.16 mL/min/1.73m2 (P<0.001). Trial stopped early for efficacy at prespecified interim analysis. FDA subsequently expanded semaglutide (Ozempic) indications to include T2D patients with CKD. This is the first dedicated kidney outcomes trial with a GLP-1 receptor agonist, published in NEJM.
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -65,6 +65,18 @@ Sanctum's Wonder proposal (2frDGSg1frwBeh3bc6R7XKR2wckyMTt6pGXLGLPgoota, created
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Dean's List DAO proposal (DgXa6gy7nAFFWe8VDkiReQYhqe1JSYQCJWUBV8Mm6aM) used Autocrat v0.3 with 3-day trading period and 3% TWAP threshold. Proposal completed 2024-06-25 with failed status. This provides concrete implementation data: small DAOs (FDV $123K) can deploy Autocrat with custom TWAP thresholds (3% vs. typical higher thresholds), but low absolute dollar amounts may be insufficient to attract trader participation even when percentage returns are favorable.
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Dean's List DAO proposal (DgXa6gy7nAFFWe8VDkiReQYhqe1JSYQCJWUBV8Mm6aM) used Autocrat v0.3 with 3-day trading period and 3% TWAP threshold. Proposal completed 2024-06-25 with failed status. This provides concrete implementation data: small DAOs (FDV $123K) can deploy Autocrat with custom TWAP thresholds (3% vs. typical higher thresholds), but low absolute dollar amounts may be insufficient to attract trader participation even when percentage returns are favorable.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2023-12-03-futardio-proposal-migrate-autocrat-program-to-v01]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Autocrat v0.1 made the three-day window configurable rather than hardcoded, with the proposer stating it was 'most importantly' designed to 'allow for quicker feedback loops.' The proposal passed with 990K META migrated, demonstrating community acceptance of parameterized proposal duration.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2024-07-04-futardio-proposal-proposal-3]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Proposal #3 on MetaDAO (account EXehk1u3qUJZSxJ4X3nHsiTocRhzwq3eQAa6WKxeJ8Xs) ran on Autocrat version 0.3, created 2024-07-04, and completed/ended 2024-07-08 - confirming the four-day operational window (proposal creation plus three-day settlement period) specified in the mechanism design.
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -35,6 +35,12 @@ FitByte ICO attracted only $23 in total commitments against a $500,000 target be
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Dean's List ThailandDAO proposal (DgXa6gy7nAFFWe8VDkiReQYhqe1JSYQCJWUBV8Mm6aM) failed on 2024-06-25 despite projecting 16x FDV increase with only 3% TWAP threshold required. The proposal explicitly calculated that $73.95 per-participant value creation across 50 participants would meet the threshold, yet failed to attract sufficient trading volume. This extends the 'limited trading volume' pattern from uncontested decisions to contested-but-favorable proposals, suggesting the participation problem is broader than initial observations indicated.
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Dean's List ThailandDAO proposal (DgXa6gy7nAFFWe8VDkiReQYhqe1JSYQCJWUBV8Mm6aM) failed on 2024-06-25 despite projecting 16x FDV increase with only 3% TWAP threshold required. The proposal explicitly calculated that $73.95 per-participant value creation across 50 participants would meet the threshold, yet failed to attract sufficient trading volume. This extends the 'limited trading volume' pattern from uncontested decisions to contested-but-favorable proposals, suggesting the participation problem is broader than initial observations indicated.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2024-07-04-futardio-proposal-proposal-3]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Proposal #3 failed with no indication of trading activity or market participation in the on-chain data, consistent with the pattern of minimal engagement in proposals without controversy or competitive dynamics.
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@ -35,6 +35,12 @@ This pattern is general. Since [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token pri
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- MetaDAO's current scale ($219M total futarchy marketcap) may be too small to attract sophisticated attacks that the removed mechanisms were designed to prevent
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- MetaDAO's current scale ($219M total futarchy marketcap) may be too small to attract sophisticated attacks that the removed mechanisms were designed to prevent
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- Hanson might argue that MetaDAO's version isn't really futarchy at all — just conditional prediction markets used for governance, which is a narrower claim
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- Hanson might argue that MetaDAO's version isn't really futarchy at all — just conditional prediction markets used for governance, which is a narrower claim
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2023-12-03-futardio-proposal-migrate-autocrat-program-to-v01]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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MetaDAO's Autocrat v0.1 simplified by making proposal slots configurable and reducing default duration to 3 days. The proposer explicitly framed this as enabling 'quicker feedback loops,' suggesting the original implementation's fixed duration was a practical barrier to adoption.
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@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
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---
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type: claim
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domain: internet-finance
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description: Human judgment layer resolves ambiguity in automated reward systems while maintaining credible commitment
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confidence: experimental
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source: Drift Futarchy proposal execution structure
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created: 2026-03-15
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# Futarchy incentive programs use multisig execution groups as discretionary override because pure algorithmic distribution cannot handle edge cases or gaming attempts
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The Drift proposal establishes a 2/3 multisig execution group (metaprophet, Sumatt, Lmvdzande) to distribute the 50,000 DRIFT budget according to the outlined rules. Critically, the proposal grants this group discretion in two areas: (1) determining 'exact criteria' for the activity pool to filter non-organic participation, and (2) deciding which proposals qualify if successful proposals exceed the budget. The group also receives 3,000 DRIFT for their work and has authority to return excess funds to the treasury. This structure acknowledges that pure algorithmic distribution fails when faced with gaming, ambiguous cases, or unforeseen circumstances. The multisig provides a credible commitment mechanism - the proposal passes based on general principles, but execution requires human judgment. The group composition (known futarchy advocates) provides reputational accountability.
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Relevant Notes:
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- futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md
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Topics:
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- [[_map]]
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type: claim
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domain: internet-finance
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description: Three-month clawback period filters for proposals that create lasting value versus short-term manipulation
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confidence: experimental
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source: Drift Futarchy proposal structure
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created: 2026-03-15
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# Futarchy proposer incentives require delayed vesting to prevent gaming because immediate rewards enable proposal spam for token extraction rather than quality governance
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The Drift proposal structures proposer rewards with a three-month delay between proposal passage and token claim. Passing proposals earn up to 5,000 DRIFT each, but tokens are only claimable after three months. This delay creates a quality filter: proposers must believe their proposals will create sustained value that survives the vesting period. Without this delay, rational actors could spam low-quality proposals to extract rewards, knowing they can exit before negative effects manifest. The proposal also includes an executor group discretion clause - if successful proposals exceed expectations, the group can decide which top N proposals split the allocation. This combines time-based filtering with human judgment to prevent gaming. The 20,000 DRIFT activity pool uses the same three-month delay, with criteria finalized by the execution group to 'filter for non organic activity.'
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- futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md
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- performance-unlocked-team-tokens-with-price-multiple-triggers-and-twap-settlement-create-long-term-alignment-without-initial-dilution.md
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- [[_map]]
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type: claim
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domain: internet-finance
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description: Token distributions to historical participants leverage behavioral economics to seed active markets
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confidence: experimental
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source: Drift Futarchy proposal, endowment effect literature
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created: 2026-03-15
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# Futarchy retroactive rewards bootstrap participation through endowment effect by converting past engagement into token holdings that create psychological ownership
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The Drift Futarchy incentive program explicitly uses retroactive token distribution to MetaDAO participants as a mechanism to bootstrap engagement. The proposal cites the endowment effect - the behavioral economics finding that people value things more highly once they own them - as the theoretical basis. By distributing 9,600 DRIFT to 32 MetaDAO participants based on historical activity (5+ interactions over 30+ days), plus 2,400 DRIFT to AMM swappers, the proposal creates a cohort of token holders who have psychological ownership before the futarchy system launches. This differs from standard airdrops by explicitly targeting demonstrated forecasters rather than broad distribution. The tiered structure (100-400 DRIFT based on META holdings) further segments by engagement level. The proposal pairs this with forward incentives (5,000 DRIFT per passing proposal, 20,000 DRIFT activity pool) to convert initial ownership into sustained participation.
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Relevant Notes:
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- MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md
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- [[_map]]
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type: claim
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domain: internet-finance
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description: Community approved treasury migration despite inability to verify program builds, revealing governance tradeoffs
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confidence: experimental
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source: MetaDAO Autocrat v0.1 proposal risk disclosure, December 2023
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created: 2026-03-15
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# MetaDAO Autocrat migration accepted counterparty risk from unverifiable builds prioritizing iteration speed over security guarantees
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The proposal explicitly disclosed that the new Autocrat program "was unable to build with solana-verifiable-build" and required "placing trust in me that I didn't introduce a backdoor." Despite this counterparty risk affecting 990,000 META, 10,025 USDC, and 5.5 SOL, the proposal passed. The proposer acknowledged this as a temporary compromise, stating "for future versions, I should always be able to use verifiable builds." This reveals a critical governance tradeoff: the MetaDAO community valued faster iteration and improved functionality (configurable proposal slots, 3-day default) over the security guarantee of verifiable builds. The decision suggests early-stage futarchy DAOs prioritize mechanism refinement over security hardening, accepting elevated trust assumptions to compress development cycles. This pattern may not generalize to mature DAOs or larger treasuries, but demonstrates that governance communities will accept temporary centralization when the alternative is slower evolution of the governance mechanism itself.
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Relevant Notes:
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- futarchy implementations must simplify theoretical mechanisms for production adoption because original designs include impractical elements that academics tolerate but users reject.md
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- futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md
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- [[_map]]
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type: claim
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domain: internet-finance
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description: Configurable proposal slots with three-day default compress feedback loops in futarchy governance
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confidence: experimental
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source: MetaDAO Autocrat v0.1 proposal, December 2023
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created: 2026-03-15
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# MetaDAO Autocrat v0.1 reduces proposal duration to three days enabling faster governance iteration
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The Autocrat v0.1 upgrade introduces configurable slots per proposal with a default of 3 days, explicitly designed to "allow for quicker feedback loops." This represents a significant reduction from previous implementations and addresses a key friction point in futarchy adoption: the time cost of decision-making. The proposal passed and migrated 990,000 META, 10,025 USDC, and 5.5 SOL to the new program, demonstrating community acceptance of faster iteration cycles. The architectural change makes proposal duration a parameter rather than a constant, allowing MetaDAO to tune the speed-quality tradeoff based on empirical results. This matters because governance mechanism adoption depends on matching decision velocity to organizational needs—too slow and participants route around the system, too fast and markets cannot aggregate information effectively.
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Relevant Notes:
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- MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md
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- futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md
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Topics:
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- [[_map]]
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@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ Colosseum operates Solana's hackathon infrastructure, runs an accelerator progra
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- **2024-03-19** — [[metadao-otc-trade-colosseum]] proposed: $250,000 USDC acquisition of META tokens with 20% immediate unlock and 80% vested over 12 months
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- **2024-03-19** — [[metadao-otc-trade-colosseum]] proposed: $250,000 USDC acquisition of META tokens with 20% immediate unlock and 80% vested over 12 months
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- **2024-03-24** — [[metadao-otc-trade-colosseum]] passed: Colosseum completed OTC acquisition of META tokens from MetaDAO treasury
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- **2024-03-24** — [[metadao-otc-trade-colosseum]] passed: Colosseum completed OTC acquisition of META tokens from MetaDAO treasury
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- **2024-03-19** — Proposed $250k OTC acquisition of META tokens from MetaDAO treasury using conditional TWAP pricing (capped at $850, void above $1,200), with 20% immediate unlock and 80% vesting over 12 months. Included commitment to sponsor MetaDAO in next DAO track hackathon ($50-80k value). Proposal passed 2024-03-24.
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## Relationship to KB
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## Relationship to KB
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- [[metadao]] — strategic investor and ecosystem partner
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- [[metadao]] — strategic investor and ecosystem partner
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- Demonstrates institutional adoption of futarchy-governed token sales as fundraising mechanism
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- Demonstrates institutional adoption of futarchy-governed token sales as fundraising mechanism
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@ -60,6 +60,11 @@ The futarchy governance protocol on Solana. Implements decision markets through
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- **2025-01-30** — [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-2]] passed: Theia acquires 370.370 META tokens for $500,000 USDC
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- **2025-01-30** — [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-2]] passed: Theia acquires 370.370 META tokens for $500,000 USDC
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- **2023-11-18** — [[metadao-develop-lst-vote-market]] proposed: first product development proposal requesting 3,000 META to build Votium-style validator bribe platform for MNDE/mSOL holders
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- **2023-11-18** — [[metadao-develop-lst-vote-market]] proposed: first product development proposal requesting 3,000 META to build Votium-style validator bribe platform for MNDE/mSOL holders
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- **2023-11-29** — [[metadao-develop-lst-vote-market]] passed: approved LST Vote Market development with projected $10.5M enterprise value addition
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- **2023-11-29** — [[metadao-develop-lst-vote-market]] passed: approved LST Vote Market development with projected $10.5M enterprise value addition
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- **2023-12-03** — Proposed Autocrat v0.1 migration with configurable proposal slots and 3-day default duration
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- **2023-12-13** — Completed Autocrat v0.1 migration, moving 990,000 META, 10,025 USDC, and 5.5 SOL to new program despite unverifiable build
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- **2024-01-24** — Proposed AMM program to replace CLOB markets, addressing liquidity fragmentation and state rent costs (Proposal CF9QUBS251FnNGZHLJ4WbB2CVRi5BtqJbCqMi47NX1PG)
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- **2024-01-29** — AMM proposal passed with 400 META on approval and 800 META on completion budget
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- **2024-03-19** — Proposal 13: Colosseum OTC trade for up to $250k USDC worth of META tokens, using conditional TWAP pricing with $850 cap and $1,200 void threshold. Executed via 5/7 multisig with 2 Colosseum and 5 MetaDAO members. Proposal passed 2024-03-24. META spot price at proposal: $468.09, circulating supply: 17,421 tokens.
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## Key Decisions
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## Key Decisions
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| Date | Proposal | Proposer | Category | Outcome |
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| Date | Proposal | Proposer | Category | Outcome |
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|------|----------|----------|----------|---------|
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|------|----------|----------|----------|---------|
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@ -6,9 +6,14 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/AkLsnieYpCU2UsSqUNrbMrQNi9bvdnjxx75mZbJns9z
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date: 2023-12-03
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date: 2023-12-03
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domain: internet-finance
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domain: internet-finance
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format: data
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format: data
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status: unprocessed
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status: processed
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tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
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tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
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event_type: proposal
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event_type: proposal
|
||||||
|
processed_by: rio
|
||||||
|
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||||
|
claims_extracted: ["metadao-autocrat-v01-reduces-proposal-duration-to-three-days-enabling-faster-governance-iteration.md", "metadao-autocrat-migration-accepted-counterparty-risk-from-unverifiable-builds-prioritizing-iteration-speed-over-security-guarantees.md"]
|
||||||
|
enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md", "futarchy implementations must simplify theoretical mechanisms for production adoption because original designs include impractical elements that academics tolerate but users reject.md"]
|
||||||
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Proposal Details
|
## Proposal Details
|
||||||
|
|
@ -63,3 +68,12 @@ For future versions, I should always be able to use verifiable builds.
|
||||||
- Autocrat version: 0
|
- Autocrat version: 0
|
||||||
- Completed: 2023-12-13
|
- Completed: 2023-12-13
|
||||||
- Ended: 2023-12-13
|
- Ended: 2023-12-13
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Key Facts
|
||||||
|
- MetaDAO Autocrat v0.1 proposal created 2023-12-03, completed 2023-12-13
|
||||||
|
- Proposal migrated 990,000 META, 10,025 USDC, and 5.5 SOL from first to second Autocrat program
|
||||||
|
- Autocrat v0.1 default proposal duration is 3 days
|
||||||
|
- Proposal account: AkLsnieYpCU2UsSqUNrbMrQNi9bvdnjxx75mZbJns9zi
|
||||||
|
- DAO account: 3wDJ5g73ABaDsL1qofF5jJqEJU4RnRQrvzRLkSnFc5di
|
||||||
|
- Autocrat v0.1 could not use solana-verifiable-build for undisclosed reasons
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
@ -6,9 +6,12 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/HyA2h16uPQBFjezKf77wThNGsEoesUjeQf9rFvfAy4t
|
||||||
date: 2024-02-05
|
date: 2024-02-05
|
||||||
domain: internet-finance
|
domain: internet-finance
|
||||||
format: data
|
format: data
|
||||||
status: unprocessed
|
status: enrichment
|
||||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||||
event_type: proposal
|
event_type: proposal
|
||||||
|
processed_by: rio
|
||||||
|
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||||
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Proposal Details
|
## Proposal Details
|
||||||
|
|
@ -61,3 +64,12 @@ Obviously, there is no algorithmic guarantee that the multisig members will actu
|
||||||
- Autocrat version: 0.1
|
- Autocrat version: 0.1
|
||||||
- Completed: 2024-02-10
|
- Completed: 2024-02-10
|
||||||
- Ended: 2024-02-10
|
- Ended: 2024-02-10
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Key Facts
|
||||||
|
- MetaDAO Proposal 5 passed on 2024-02-05 and completed on 2024-02-10
|
||||||
|
- The proposal transferred 4,130 META to a 4/6 multisig: 3,100 META for sale participants, 1,000 META for liquidity pool, 30 META for multisig compensation (5 META each)
|
||||||
|
- Initial META spot price was set at 35 USDC/META through the liquidity pool pairing
|
||||||
|
- Multisig members were Proph3t, Dean, Nallok, Durden, Rar3, and BlockchainFixesThis
|
||||||
|
- Participants had a 2-day window (Feb 5-7) to transfer USDC for their allocations
|
||||||
|
- The liquidity pool was likely created on Meteora
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/E1FJAp8saDU6Da2ccayjLBfA53qbjKRNYvu7QiMAnjQ
|
||||||
date: 2024-02-18
|
date: 2024-02-18
|
||||||
domain: internet-finance
|
domain: internet-finance
|
||||||
format: data
|
format: data
|
||||||
status: unprocessed
|
status: enrichment
|
||||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||||
event_type: proposal
|
event_type: proposal
|
||||||
processed_by: rio
|
processed_by: rio
|
||||||
|
|
@ -14,6 +14,9 @@ processed_date: 2024-02-18
|
||||||
enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-governed-DAOs-converge-on-traditional-corporate-governance-scaffolding-for-treasury-operations-because-market-mechanisms-alone-cannot-provide-operational-security-and-legal-compliance.md", "MetaDAOs-Autocrat-program-implements-futarchy-through-conditional-token-markets-where-proposals-create-parallel-pass-and-fail-universes-settled-by-time-weighted-average-price-over-a-three-day-window.md", "futarchy-adoption-faces-friction-from-token-price-psychology-proposal-complexity-and-liquidity-requirements.md", "time-based-token-vesting-is-hedgeable-making-standard-lockups-meaningless-as-alignment-mechanisms-because-investors-can-short-sell-to-neutralize-lockup-exposure-while-appearing-locked.md"]
|
enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-governed-DAOs-converge-on-traditional-corporate-governance-scaffolding-for-treasury-operations-because-market-mechanisms-alone-cannot-provide-operational-security-and-legal-compliance.md", "MetaDAOs-Autocrat-program-implements-futarchy-through-conditional-token-markets-where-proposals-create-parallel-pass-and-fail-universes-settled-by-time-weighted-average-price-over-a-three-day-window.md", "futarchy-adoption-faces-friction-from-token-price-psychology-proposal-complexity-and-liquidity-requirements.md", "time-based-token-vesting-is-hedgeable-making-standard-lockups-meaningless-as-alignment-mechanisms-because-investors-can-short-sell-to-neutralize-lockup-exposure-while-appearing-locked.md"]
|
||||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
extraction_notes: "Failed MetaDAO proposal for $100k OTC trade. Extracted two claims: (1) the vesting mechanism design for managing large token sales, (2) the market rejection despite acknowledged liquidity need. Four enrichments confirm existing claims about futarchy scaffolding, TWAP usage, adoption friction, and vesting limitations. The proposal's failure is particularly interesting as evidence of futarchy rejecting a solution to a stated problem, suggesting the mechanism can distinguish between 'we have a problem' and 'this solution is net positive.'"
|
extraction_notes: "Failed MetaDAO proposal for $100k OTC trade. Extracted two claims: (1) the vesting mechanism design for managing large token sales, (2) the market rejection despite acknowledged liquidity need. Four enrichments confirm existing claims about futarchy scaffolding, TWAP usage, adoption friction, and vesting limitations. The proposal's failure is particularly interesting as evidence of futarchy rejecting a solution to a stated problem, suggesting the mechanism can distinguish between 'we have a problem' and 'this solution is net positive.'"
|
||||||
|
processed_by: rio
|
||||||
|
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||||
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Proposal Details
|
## Proposal Details
|
||||||
|
|
@ -157,3 +160,15 @@ Here are some post-money valuations at different prices as well total increase i
|
||||||
- Multisig: 6 members, 4/6 threshold (Proph3t, Dean, 0xNallok, Durden, Blockchainfixesthis, Rar3)
|
- Multisig: 6 members, 4/6 threshold (Proph3t, Dean, 0xNallok, Durden, Blockchainfixesthis, Rar3)
|
||||||
- Projected circulating supply increase: 2-7%
|
- Projected circulating supply increase: 2-7%
|
||||||
- Projected META value increase: ~15%
|
- Projected META value increase: ~15%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Key Facts
|
||||||
|
- MetaDAO Proposal 8 created 2024-02-18, failed 2024-02-24
|
||||||
|
- Proposal sought $100k USDC for up to 500 META tokens at max(twapPass, $200)
|
||||||
|
- META spot price was $695.92 on 2024-02-18 20:20 UTC
|
||||||
|
- META circulating supply was 14,530 tokens at proposal time
|
||||||
|
- Proposal structure: 20% immediate transfer, 80% linear vest over 12 months via Streamflow
|
||||||
|
- Multisig: 6 members (Proph3t, Dean, 0xNallok, Durden, Blockchainfixesthis, Rar3) with 4/6 threshold
|
||||||
|
- Projected circulating supply increase: 2-7% depending on final price
|
||||||
|
- Projected META value increase: ~15% from liquidity injection
|
||||||
|
- Proposal included $2,000 USDC compensation for multisig members
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2024-05-29
|
||||||
domain: health
|
domain: health
|
||||||
secondary_domains: []
|
secondary_domains: []
|
||||||
format: paper
|
format: paper
|
||||||
status: unprocessed
|
status: enrichment
|
||||||
priority: high
|
priority: high
|
||||||
tags: [glp-1, semaglutide, CKD, kidney-disease, FLOW-trial, organ-protection]
|
tags: [glp-1, semaglutide, CKD, kidney-disease, FLOW-trial, organ-protection]
|
||||||
|
processed_by: vida
|
||||||
|
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||||
|
enrichments_applied: ["semaglutide-reduces-kidney-disease-progression-24-percent-and-delays-dialysis-creating-largest-per-patient-cost-savings.md", "glp-1-multi-organ-protection-creates-compounding-value-across-kidney-cardiovascular-and-metabolic-endpoints.md", "GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035.md"]
|
||||||
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Content
|
## Content
|
||||||
|
|
@ -38,3 +42,17 @@ Additive benefits when used with SGLT2 inhibitors (separate analysis in Nature M
|
||||||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035]]
|
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035]]
|
||||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Kidney protection is where GLP-1 downstream savings are largest per-patient — dialysis prevention is the economic mechanism most favorable to the VBC cost-saving thesis
|
WHY ARCHIVED: Kidney protection is where GLP-1 downstream savings are largest per-patient — dialysis prevention is the economic mechanism most favorable to the VBC cost-saving thesis
|
||||||
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the economic implications of slowed kidney decline for capitated payers, not just the clinical endpoint
|
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the economic implications of slowed kidney decline for capitated payers, not just the clinical endpoint
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Key Facts
|
||||||
|
- FLOW trial enrolled 3,533 patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease
|
||||||
|
- Median follow-up was 3.4 years before early stopping
|
||||||
|
- Trial stopped at prespecified interim analysis due to efficacy
|
||||||
|
- Primary composite endpoint showed 24% lower risk with semaglutide (HR 0.76; P=0.0003)
|
||||||
|
- Kidney-specific components: HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94)
|
||||||
|
- Cardiovascular death: HR 0.71 (95% CI 0.56-0.89)
|
||||||
|
- Major cardiovascular events: 18% lower risk
|
||||||
|
- Annual eGFR slope less steep by 1.16 mL/min/1.73m2 in semaglutide group (P<0.001)
|
||||||
|
- FDA expanded semaglutide (Ozempic) indications to include T2D patients with CKD following this trial
|
||||||
|
- Dialysis costs approximately $90K+/year per patient
|
||||||
|
- Published in New England Journal of Medicine, 2024-05-29
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/EXehk1u3qUJZSxJ4X3nHsiTocRhzwq3eQAa6WKxeJ8X
|
||||||
date: 2024-07-04
|
date: 2024-07-04
|
||||||
domain: internet-finance
|
domain: internet-finance
|
||||||
format: data
|
format: data
|
||||||
status: unprocessed
|
status: enrichment
|
||||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||||
event_type: proposal
|
event_type: proposal
|
||||||
processed_by: rio
|
processed_by: rio
|
||||||
|
|
@ -14,6 +14,10 @@ processed_date: 2024-12-10
|
||||||
enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md", "MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions.md"]
|
enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md", "MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions.md"]
|
||||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
extraction_notes: "Structured data from a failed MetaDAO proposal. No new claims warranted - this is factual evidence of the futarchy mechanism in operation. Enriches existing claims about MetaDAO's Autocrat implementation with concrete on-chain data and timeline. The source contains only verifiable facts about proposal metadata, not arguable propositions."
|
extraction_notes: "Structured data from a failed MetaDAO proposal. No new claims warranted - this is factual evidence of the futarchy mechanism in operation. Enriches existing claims about MetaDAO's Autocrat implementation with concrete on-chain data and timeline. The source contains only verifiable facts about proposal metadata, not arguable propositions."
|
||||||
|
processed_by: rio
|
||||||
|
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||||
|
enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md", "MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions.md"]
|
||||||
|
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Proposal Details
|
## Proposal Details
|
||||||
|
|
@ -42,3 +46,12 @@ extraction_notes: "Structured data from a failed MetaDAO proposal. No new claims
|
||||||
- Proposal created: 2024-07-04
|
- Proposal created: 2024-07-04
|
||||||
- Proposal completed and ended: 2024-07-08
|
- Proposal completed and ended: 2024-07-08
|
||||||
- Proposal status: Failed
|
- Proposal status: Failed
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Key Facts
|
||||||
|
- MetaDAO Proposal #3 account: EXehk1u3qUJZSxJ4X3nHsiTocRhzwq3eQAa6WKxeJ8Xs
|
||||||
|
- MetaDAO DAO account: GWywkp2mY2vzAaLydR2MBXRCqk2vBTyvtVRioujxi5Ce
|
||||||
|
- Proposal #3 proposer: HwBL75xHHKcXSMNcctq3UqWaEJPDWVQz6NazZJNjWaQc
|
||||||
|
- Proposal #3 used Autocrat version 0.3
|
||||||
|
- Proposal #3 status: Failed
|
||||||
|
- Proposal #3 timeline: Created 2024-07-04, Completed and Ended 2024-07-08
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue