b8fa2f5981
Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
28 lines
1.8 KiB
Markdown
28 lines
1.8 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: conviction
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domain: ai-alignment
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secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
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description: "Not a prediction but an observation in progress — AI is already writing and verifying code, the remaining question is scope and timeline not possibility."
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staked_by: Cory
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stake: high
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created: 2026-03-07
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horizon: "2028"
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falsified_by: "AI code generation plateaus at toy problems and fails to handle production-scale systems by 2028"
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---
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# AI-automated software development is 100 percent certain and will radically change how software is built
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Cory's conviction, staked with high confidence on 2026-03-07.
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The evidence is already visible: Claude solved a 30-year open mathematical problem (Knuth 2026). AI agents autonomously explored solution spaces with zero human intervention (Aquino-Michaels 2026). AI-generated proofs are formally verified by machine (Morrison 2026). The trajectory from here to automated software development is not speculative — it's interpolation.
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The implication: when building capacity is commoditized, the scarce complement becomes *knowing what to build*. Structured knowledge — machine-readable specifications of what matters, why, and how to evaluate results — becomes the critical input to autonomous systems.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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- [[as AI-automated software development becomes certain the bottleneck shifts from building capacity to knowing what to build making structured knowledge graphs the critical input to autonomous systems]] — the claim this conviction anchors
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- [[structured exploration protocols reduce human intervention by 6x because the Residue prompt enabled 5 unguided AI explorations to solve what required 31 human-coached explorations]] — evidence of AI autonomy in complex problem-solving
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Topics:
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- domains/ai-alignment/_map
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