m3taversal
a246972967
- What: Delete jagged intelligence and J-curve standalone claims, enrich their target claims instead. Add enrichment-vs-standalone gate, evidence bar by confidence level, and source quality assessment to evaluator framework. - Why: Post-Phase 2 calibration. Both claims were reframings of existing claims, not genuinely new mechanisms. 0 rejections across 22 PRs suggests evaluator leniency. This corrects both the specific errors and the framework gap. - Changes: - DELETE: jagged intelligence standalone → ENRICH: RSI claim with counterargument - DELETE: J-curve standalone → ENRICH: knowledge embodiment lag with AI-specific data - UPDATE: _map.md, three-conditions wiki links, source archive metadata - UPDATE: agents/leo/reasoning.md with three new evaluation gates - Peer review requested: Theseus (ai-alignment changes), Rio (internet-finance changes) Pentagon-Agent: Leo <76FB9BCA-CC16-4479-B3E5-25A3769B3D7E> Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
35 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
35 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
---
|
|
title: "Superintelligence is already here, today"
|
|
author: Noah Smith
|
|
source: Noahopinion (Substack)
|
|
date: 2026-03-02
|
|
processed_by: theseus
|
|
processed_date: 2026-03-06
|
|
type: newsletter
|
|
status: complete (13 pages)
|
|
claims_extracted:
|
|
- "three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities"
|
|
enrichments:
|
|
- target: "recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving"
|
|
contribution: "jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)"
|
|
---
|
|
|
|
# Superintelligence is already here, today
|
|
|
|
Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions.
|
|
|
|
Key evidence:
|
|
- METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau
|
|
- Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved
|
|
- Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
|
|
- Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks
|
|
- "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement
|
|
|
|
Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met):
|
|
1. Full autonomy (not just task execution)
|
|
2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale)
|
|
3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure)
|
|
|
|
Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative.
|
|
|
|
Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf
|