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teleo-codex/entities/internet-finance/polymarket.md
m3taversal 4595339734 rio: enrich entities with research agent data — Kalshi, Polymarket, Ranger 
- Kalshi: $263.5M 2025 revenue, $11B valuation, 5.1M MAU, state regulatory war
- Polymarket: $7B+ Feb volume, ICE $2B investment, QCX acquisition for US re-entry
- Ranger: ForaMarkets acquihire, Build-A-Bear hackathon, vault pivot details
- Sector map: added Coinbase, Robinhood, FanDuel as new prediction market entrants
- Network config: 35 accounts across 6 tiers with search terms

Pentagon-Agent: Rio <CE7B8202-2877-4C70-8AAB-B05F832F50EA>
2026-03-11 01:00:57 +00:00

5 KiB
Raw Blame History

type entity_type name domain handles website status tracked_by created last_updated founded founders category stage funding key_metrics competitors built_on tags
entity company Polymarket internet-finance
@Polymarket
https://polymarket.com active rio 2026-03-11 2026-03-11 2020-06-01
shayne-coplan
Prediction market platform (Polygon/Ethereum L2) growth ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B
monthly_volume_30d daily_volume_24h daily_record february_2026_volume election_accuracy valuation
$8.7B (March 2026) $390M (March 2026) $478M single-day (Iran strikes, March 2026) $7B+ (7.5x YoY increase) 94%+ one month before resolution; 98% on winners ~$8B pre-money (before ICE investment)
kalshi
augur
Coinbase
Robinhood
Polygon
prediction-markets
decision-markets
information-aggregation

Polymarket

Overview

Crypto-native prediction market platform on Polygon. Users trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events (politics, economics, sports, crypto). Built on USDC. Vindicated by 2024 US presidential election — called Trump victory when polls showed a toss-up. Now the world's largest prediction market by volume.

Current State

  • Volume: $390M daily avg, $8.7B 30-day (March 2026). February 2026 exceeded $7B (7.5x YoY). Daily record $478M on Iran strikes. Geopolitical events driving volume surge — Iran-related markets alone exceeded $529M in stakes.
  • Accuracy: 94%+ one month before outcome resolution; 98% on calling winners
  • US access: Returned to US users after CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation (November 2025). Acquired QCX LLC (CFTC-regulated exchange) in July 2025 to enable intermediated US trading through Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs).
  • Valuation: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested $2B (October 2025) at ~$8B pre-money. ICE role: global distributor of Polymarket's event-driven data. NYSE's parent company betting on prediction market data as financial information product.
  • Market creation: Permissionless — anyone can create markets. Expanding beyond politics into crypto, stocks, climate, AI, pop culture, sports.
  • Content strategy: Operating as breaking-news aggregator — tweets are "BREAKING" headlines with odds. Building audience via news, converting to market participants.

Timeline

  • 2020-06 — Founded by Shayne Coplan (age 22, NYU dropout). Pivoted from earlier DeFi project Union Market.
  • 2022-01 — CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4M for operating unregistered binary options market; ordered to cease and desist. Blocked US users.
  • 2024-11 — 2024 US presidential election: $3.7B total volume. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump victory; polls showed toss-up. Major vindication moment for prediction markets.
  • 2025-10 — Monthly volume exceeded $3B
  • 2025-11 — CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation as regulated contract market
  • 2025-12 — Relaunched for US users (invite-only, restricted markets)
  • 2026-03 — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B (week of March 2-8, 2026)

Competitive Position

  • #1 by volume — leads Kalshi on 30-day volume ($8.7B vs $6.8B). Dominates political/geopolitical markets.
  • Crypto-native: USDC on Polygon, non-custodial, permissionless market creation
  • vs Kalshi: Duopoly forming. Polymarket = crypto-native/politics-dominant. Kalshi = regulated/sports-dominant. Polymarket's ICE deal prices prediction market data as financial information product — competing on data distribution, not just trading.
  • New competitors entering: Coinbase (acquired The Clearing Company), Robinhood, FanDuel ($200-300M from Flutter), Fanatics. Category attracting serious institutional capital.
  • Not governance: Polymarket aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations. Same mechanism class as MetaDAO (conditional markets), different application.

Investment Thesis

Polymarket proved prediction markets work at scale. The 2024 election vindication created a permanent legitimacy shift — prediction markets are now the reference standard for forecasting, not polls. Growth trajectory accelerating. Key risk: regulatory capture (CFTC constraints on market types), competition from Kalshi on institutional/mainstream side.

Thesis status: ACTIVE

Relationship to KB

Relevant Entities:

  • kalshi — primary competitor (regulated)
  • metadao — same mechanism class, different application (governance vs prediction)

Topics: