m3taversal
4595339734
- Kalshi: $263.5M 2025 revenue, $11B valuation, 5.1M MAU, state regulatory war - Polymarket: $7B+ Feb volume, ICE $2B investment, QCX acquisition for US re-entry - Ranger: ForaMarkets acquihire, Build-A-Bear hackathon, vault pivot details - Sector map: added Coinbase, Robinhood, FanDuel as new prediction market entrants - Network config: 35 accounts across 6 tiers with search terms Pentagon-Agent: Rio <CE7B8202-2877-4C70-8AAB-B05F832F50EA>
75 lines
5 KiB
Markdown
75 lines
5 KiB
Markdown
---
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type: entity
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entity_type: company
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name: "Polymarket"
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domain: internet-finance
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handles: ["@Polymarket"]
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website: https://polymarket.com
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status: active
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tracked_by: rio
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created: 2026-03-11
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last_updated: 2026-03-11
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founded: 2020-06-01
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founders: ["[[shayne-coplan]]"]
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category: "Prediction market platform (Polygon/Ethereum L2)"
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stage: growth
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funding: "ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B"
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key_metrics:
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monthly_volume_30d: "$8.7B (March 2026)"
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daily_volume_24h: "$390M (March 2026)"
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daily_record: "$478M single-day (Iran strikes, March 2026)"
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february_2026_volume: "$7B+ (7.5x YoY increase)"
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election_accuracy: "94%+ one month before resolution; 98% on winners"
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valuation: "~$8B pre-money (before ICE investment)"
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competitors: ["[[kalshi]]", "[[augur]]", "Coinbase", "Robinhood"]
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built_on: ["Polygon"]
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tags: ["prediction-markets", "decision-markets", "information-aggregation"]
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---
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# Polymarket
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## Overview
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Crypto-native prediction market platform on Polygon. Users trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events (politics, economics, sports, crypto). Built on USDC. Vindicated by 2024 US presidential election — called Trump victory when polls showed a toss-up. Now the world's largest prediction market by volume.
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## Current State
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- **Volume**: $390M daily avg, $8.7B 30-day (March 2026). February 2026 exceeded $7B (7.5x YoY). Daily record $478M on Iran strikes. Geopolitical events driving volume surge — Iran-related markets alone exceeded $529M in stakes.
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- **Accuracy**: 94%+ one month before outcome resolution; 98% on calling winners
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- **US access**: Returned to US users after CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation (November 2025). Acquired QCX LLC (CFTC-regulated exchange) in July 2025 to enable intermediated US trading through Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs).
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- **Valuation**: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested $2B (October 2025) at ~$8B pre-money. ICE role: global distributor of Polymarket's event-driven data. NYSE's parent company betting on prediction market data as financial information product.
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- **Market creation**: Permissionless — anyone can create markets. Expanding beyond politics into crypto, stocks, climate, AI, pop culture, sports.
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- **Content strategy**: Operating as breaking-news aggregator — tweets are "BREAKING" headlines with odds. Building audience via news, converting to market participants.
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## Timeline
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- **2020-06** — Founded by Shayne Coplan (age 22, NYU dropout). Pivoted from earlier DeFi project Union Market.
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- **2022-01** — CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4M for operating unregistered binary options market; ordered to cease and desist. Blocked US users.
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- **2024-11** — 2024 US presidential election: $3.7B total volume. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump victory; polls showed toss-up. Major vindication moment for prediction markets.
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- **2025-10** — Monthly volume exceeded $3B
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- **2025-11** — CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation as regulated contract market
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- **2025-12** — Relaunched for US users (invite-only, restricted markets)
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- **2026-03** — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B (week of March 2-8, 2026)
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## Competitive Position
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- **#1 by volume** — leads Kalshi on 30-day volume ($8.7B vs $6.8B). Dominates political/geopolitical markets.
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- **Crypto-native**: USDC on Polygon, non-custodial, permissionless market creation
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- **vs Kalshi**: Duopoly forming. Polymarket = crypto-native/politics-dominant. Kalshi = regulated/sports-dominant. Polymarket's ICE deal prices prediction market data as financial information product — competing on data distribution, not just trading.
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- **New competitors entering**: Coinbase (acquired The Clearing Company), Robinhood, FanDuel ($200-300M from Flutter), Fanatics. Category attracting serious institutional capital.
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- **Not governance**: Polymarket aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations. Same mechanism class as MetaDAO (conditional markets), different application.
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## Investment Thesis
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Polymarket proved prediction markets work at scale. The 2024 election vindication created a permanent legitimacy shift — prediction markets are now the reference standard for forecasting, not polls. Growth trajectory accelerating. Key risk: regulatory capture (CFTC constraints on market types), competition from Kalshi on institutional/mainstream side.
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**Thesis status:** ACTIVE
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## Relationship to KB
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- [[Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election]] — core vindication claim
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- [[speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds]] — mechanism theory Polymarket demonstrates
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- [[decision markets fail in three systematic categories where legitimacy thin information or herding dynamics make voting or deliberation structurally superior]] — boundary conditions apply to Polymarket too (thin-information markets showed media-tracking behavior during early COVID)
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---
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Relevant Entities:
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- [[kalshi]] — primary competitor (regulated)
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- [[metadao]] — same mechanism class, different application (governance vs prediction)
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Topics:
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- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
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